Saturday, 29/08/2026 at 17:00
Kicked offBohemians Praha 1905 – Mladá Boleslav
Model not yet run Best odds updated 28 August, 10:17
What the model expects
- Bohemians Praha 1905
- 43%
- Draw
- 30%
- Mladá Boleslav
- 26%
| Bohemians Praha 1905 | Draw | Mladá Boleslav | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.32 | 3.29 | 3.79 |
- Total goals
- 2.59
- Over 2.5 goals
- 49%
- Both teams to score
- 58%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 1 outcome.
-
Bohemians Praha 1905
- Model
- 43.2%
- Market, margin removed
- 40.2%
- Probability gap
- +2.9 pp
- Edge
- −2.8%
- Fair odds
- 2.32
- Market odds
- 2.25 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 2.43
- Bookmaker margin
- 10.5%
-
Draw
- Model
- 30.4%
- Market, margin removed
- 27.4%
- Probability gap
- +3.0 pp
- Edge
- +0.4%
- Fair odds
- 3.29
- Market odds
- 3.30 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.45
- Bookmaker margin
- 10.5%
-
Mladá Boleslav
- Model
- 26.4%
- Market, margin removed
- 32.3%
- Probability gap
- −5.9 pp
- Edge
- −26.1%
- Fair odds
- 3.79
- Market odds
- 2.80 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.98
- Bookmaker margin
- 10.5%
Outcomes with value
Draw
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Match result
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Goals
Both teams to score
Goals by team
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model leans Bohemians Praha 1905
43% Bohemians Praha 1905 to win
- Attack
- 6th vs 16th
- Bohemians Praha 1905 attack v Mladá Boleslav defence
- Defence
- 9th vs 7th
- Bohemians Praha 1905 defence v Mladá Boleslav attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.57 vs -0.11
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.46 – 1.13
- Bohemians Praha 1905 v Mladá Boleslav
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Bohemians Praha 1905 | Mladá Boleslav |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.39 · 6th | (better) 1.45 · 4th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.37 · 10th | 2.06 · 16th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.02 · 8th | -0.62 · 15th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.31 · 10th | 1.03 · 13th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.57 | (better) -0.11 |
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Bohemians Praha 1905 sample
- 20 matches
- Mladá Boleslav sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Bohemians Praha 1905
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Mladá Boleslav
- 4 matches
- Odds updated
- 36 days ago · over a day old
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.