xgEdge

Expected goals

MFK Karviná expected goals (xG) 2025/2026

Czech First League · after 34 matches · updated 4 Oct

MFK Karviná's attacking and defensive expected goals in Czech First League 2025/2026, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

MFK Karviná xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
1.63 xG per match
#4/16
Attack (xG per match) across Czech First League, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 SK Slavia Praha 2.24
#2 AC Sparta Praha 1.84
#3 Viktoria Plzeň 1.74
#4 MFK Karviná 1.63
#5 Bohemians Praha 1905 1.38
#6 SK Sigma Olomouc 1.36
=7 FC Slovan Liberec 1.36
=7 FK Jablonec 1.36
#9 Baník Ostrava 1.31
#10 FK Pardubice 1.26
#11 FC Hradec Králové 1.23
#12 Mladá Boleslav 1.20
#13 FK Teplice 1.19
#14 1. FC Slovácko 1.16
#15 FC Zlín 1.14
#16 Dukla Praha 0.96
League avg
1.40
Total
55.56 34 matches
Defence
1.72 xGA per match
#15/16
Defence (xGA per match) across Czech First League, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 SK Slavia Praha 0.82
#2 AC Sparta Praha 0.94
#3 Viktoria Plzeň 1.17
#4 FC Slovan Liberec 1.24
#5 SK Sigma Olomouc 1.28
#6 Bohemians Praha 1905 1.32
#7 FK Jablonec 1.37
#8 FK Teplice 1.44
#9 1. FC Slovácko 1.49
#10 FC Hradec Králové 1.53
#11 FC Zlín 1.53
#12 Baník Ostrava 1.55
#13 FK Pardubice 1.55
#14 Dukla Praha 1.63
#15 MFK Karviná 1.72
#16 Mladá Boleslav 1.73
League avg
1.40
Total
58.39 34 matches
xG difference
-0.08 xGD per match
#8/16
xG difference (xGD per match) across Czech First League, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 SK Slavia Praha +1.41
#2 AC Sparta Praha +0.90
#3 Viktoria Plzeň +0.58
#4 FC Slovan Liberec +0.12
#5 SK Sigma Olomouc +0.09
#6 Bohemians Praha 1905 +0.06
#7 FK Jablonec -0.01
#8 MFK Karviná -0.08
#9 Baník Ostrava -0.24
#10 FK Teplice -0.25
#11 FC Hradec Králové -0.30
#12 FK Pardubice -0.30
#13 1. FC Slovácko -0.33
#14 FC Zlín -0.39
#15 Mladá Boleslav -0.53
#16 Dukla Praha -0.68
League avg
0.00
Total
-2.83 34 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
1.34 xPts per match
#8/16
Expected points (xPts per match) across Czech First League, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 SK Slavia Praha 2.21
#2 AC Sparta Praha 1.97
#3 Viktoria Plzeň 1.71
#4 FC Slovan Liberec 1.51
#5 Bohemians Praha 1905 1.46
#6 SK Sigma Olomouc 1.42
#7 FK Jablonec 1.39
#8 MFK Karviná 1.34
#9 Baník Ostrava 1.29
#10 FK Teplice 1.21
#11 FC Hradec Králové 1.18
#12 1. FC Slovácko 1.18
#13 FK Pardubice 1.18
#14 FC Zlín 1.10
#15 Mladá Boleslav 1.07
#16 Dukla Praha 0.90
League avg
1.38
Total
45.54 vs 42 actual pts

What the xG says

MFK Karviná's underlying numbers sit close to the Czech First League average. They rank #8 for xG difference at -0.08 per match, driven by high shot volume at about average chance quality. Their 47 goals are 8.56 below 55.56 xG, while 42 points are 3.54 below 45.54 xPts.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG Includes 4.15 xG from penalties
47 55.56 -8.56 scored 8.56 fewer than xG outside normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
61 58.39 +2.61 conceded 2.61 more than xGA within normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
42 45.54 -3.54 3.54 points below xPts within normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

MFK Karviná are 8.56 goals below their xG after 34 matches.

Goals
47
xG
55.56
Gap
-8.56
Sat 19/07 Sat 26/07 Sat 02/08 Sun 10/08 Sun 17/08 Sat 23/08 Sat 30/08 Sat 13/09 Sat 20/09 Sat 27/09 Sat 04/10 Sat 18/10 Sat 25/10 Sun 02/11 Sun 09/11 Sun 23/11 Sat 29/11 Sun 07/12 Sun 14/12 Sun 01/02 Sat 07/02 Sat 14/02 Sat 21/02 Sun 01/03 Sun 08/03 Sun 15/03 Sun 05/04 Sun 12/04 Sat 18/04 Sat 25/04 Sat 02/05 Sun 10/05 Sat 16/05 Sat 23/05 -9 -7 -5 -3 -1 +1 +0.17 -0.47 -0.90 -0.75 -1.03 -1.41 +0.25 -0.12 -0.99 -0.30 -0.94 -1.75 -0.60 -0.80 -2.05 -0.35 +0.54 -1.29 -1.13 -2.93 -4.03 -4.09 -5.78 -6.85 -7.46 -6.32 -6.90 -5.46 -5.61 -6.24 -6.42 -7.48 -8.18 -8.56 +0.17 -0.64 -0.43 +0.15 -0.28 -0.38 +1.66 -0.37 -0.87 +0.69 -0.64 -0.81 +1.15 -0.20 -1.25 +1.70 +0.89 -1.83 +0.16 -1.80 -1.10 -0.06 -1.69 -1.07 -0.61 +1.14 -0.58 +1.44 -0.15 -0.63 -0.18 -1.06 -0.70 -0.38 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
MFK Karviná: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sat 19/07 Dukla Praha 2 1.83 +0.17 +0.17
Sat 26/07 FC Hradec Králové 2 2.64 -0.64 -0.47
Sat 02/08 FC Zlín 0 0.43 -0.43 -0.90
Sun 10/08 Baník Ostrava 2 1.85 +0.15 -0.75
Sun 17/08 Bohemians Praha 1905 1 1.28 -0.28 -1.03
Sat 23/08 Viktoria Plzeň 1 1.38 -0.38 -1.41
Sat 30/08 FK Teplice 4 2.34 +1.66 +0.25
Sat 13/09 SK Slavia Praha 1 1.37 -0.37 -0.12
Sat 20/09 FK Jablonec 1 1.87 -0.87 -0.99
Sat 27/09 1. FC Slovácko 2 1.31 +0.69 -0.30
Sat 04/10 FK Pardubice 1 1.64 -0.64 -0.94
Sat 18/10 SK Sigma Olomouc 1 1.81 -0.81 -1.75
Sat 25/10 Mladá Boleslav 4 2.85 +1.15 -0.60
Sun 02/11 AC Sparta Praha 2 2.20 -0.20 -0.80
Sun 09/11 FC Slovan Liberec 0 1.25 -1.25 -2.05
Sun 23/11 FC Hradec Králové 4 2.30 +1.70 -0.35
Sat 29/11 FC Zlín 3 2.11 +0.89 +0.54
Sun 07/12 Baník Ostrava 0 1.83 -1.83 -1.29
Sun 14/12 Bohemians Praha 1905 3 2.84 +0.16 -1.13
Sun 01/02 Viktoria Plzeň 0 1.80 -1.80 -2.93
Sat 07/02 FK Teplice 0 1.10 -1.10 -4.03
Sat 14/02 SK Slavia Praha 1 1.06 -0.06 -4.09
Sat 21/02 FK Jablonec 0 1.69 -1.69 -5.78
Sun 01/03 1. FC Slovácko 0 1.07 -1.07 -6.85
Sun 08/03 FK Pardubice 1 1.61 -0.61 -7.46
Sun 15/03 SK Sigma Olomouc 2 0.86 +1.14 -6.32
Sun 05/04 AC Sparta Praha 0 0.58 -0.58 -6.90
Sun 12/04 FC Slovan Liberec 3 1.56 +1.44 -5.46
Sat 18/04 Dukla Praha 2 2.15 -0.15 -5.61
Sat 25/04 Mladá Boleslav 0 0.63 -0.63 -6.24
Sat 02/05 FK Pardubice 1 1.18 -0.18 -6.42
Sun 10/05 FK Pardubice 2 3.06 -1.06 -7.48
Sat 16/05 SK Sigma Olomouc 1 1.70 -0.70 -8.18
Sat 23/05 SK Sigma Olomouc 0 0.38 -0.38 -8.56

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

MFK Karviná xG trend

Current form -0.24 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 12 of 34 matches. The worst was against SK Sigma Olomouc on Sun 15/03 (-2.31).

npxG · last 6
1.41
npxGA · last 6
1.64
-3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +1.00 Sat 19/07 +1.47 Sat 26/07 -0.21 Sat 02/08 -0.25 Sun 10/08 -0.70 Sun 17/08 -0.36 Sat 23/08 +1.80 Sat 30/08 -2.04 Sat 13/09 -0.05 Sat 20/09 -0.98 Sat 27/09 -0.32 Sat 04/10 +0.47 Sat 18/10 +1.93 Sat 25/10 +1.35 Sun 02/11 -1.49 Sun 09/11 +0.10 Sun 23/11 -0.54 Sat 29/11 +0.96 Sun 07/12 +1.39 Sun 14/12 +0.77 Sun 01/02 -1.15 Sat 07/02 -0.72 Sat 14/02 -1.47 Sat 21/02 -0.53 Sun 01/03 -0.56 Sun 08/03 -2.31 Sun 15/03 -0.65 Sun 05/04 -0.11 Sun 12/04 +0.88 Sat 18/04 -0.62 Sat 25/04 -0.65 Sat 02/05 +0.51 Sun 10/05 -0.16 Sat 16/05 -1.38 Sat 23/05 -0.14 season avg
MFK Karviná: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sat 19/07 Dukla Praha 1.85 0.85 +1.00 +1.00
Sat 26/07 FC Hradec Králové 2.64 1.17 +1.47 +1.24
Sat 02/08 FC Zlín 0.53 0.74 -0.21 +0.75
Sun 10/08 Baník Ostrava 1.06 1.31 -0.25 +0.50
Sun 17/08 Bohemians Praha 1905 1.28 1.98 -0.70 +0.26
Sat 23/08 Viktoria Plzeň 1.38 1.74 -0.36 +0.16
Sat 30/08 FK Teplice 2.44 0.64 +1.80 +0.39
Sat 13/09 SK Slavia Praha 1.41 3.45 -2.04 +0.09
Sat 20/09 FK Jablonec 1.08 1.13 -0.05 +0.07
Sat 27/09 1. FC Slovácko 1.41 2.39 -0.98 -0.03
Sat 04/10 FK Pardubice 1.64 1.96 -0.32 -0.06
Sat 18/10 SK Sigma Olomouc 1.85 1.38 +0.47 -0.01
Sat 25/10 Mladá Boleslav 2.87 0.94 +1.93 +0.14
Sun 02/11 AC Sparta Praha 2.23 0.88 +1.35 +0.22
Sun 09/11 FC Slovan Liberec 1.25 2.74 -1.49 +0.11
Sun 23/11 FC Hradec Králové 2.30 2.20 +0.10 +0.11
Sat 29/11 FC Zlín 1.32 1.86 -0.54 +0.07
Sun 07/12 Baník Ostrava 1.83 0.87 +0.96 +0.12
Sun 14/12 Bohemians Praha 1905 2.06 0.67 +1.39 +0.19
Sun 01/02 Viktoria Plzeň 1.80 1.03 +0.77 +0.21
Sat 07/02 FK Teplice 1.10 2.25 -1.15 +0.15
Sat 14/02 SK Slavia Praha 1.06 1.78 -0.72 +0.11
Sat 21/02 FK Jablonec 1.70 3.17 -1.47 +0.04
Sun 01/03 1. FC Slovácko 1.07 1.60 -0.53 +0.02
Sun 08/03 FK Pardubice 0.82 1.38 -0.56 -0.01
Sun 15/03 SK Sigma Olomouc 0.86 3.17 -2.31 -0.09
Sun 05/04 AC Sparta Praha 0.58 1.23 -0.65 -0.11
Sun 12/04 FC Slovan Liberec 1.56 1.67 -0.11 -0.11
Sat 18/04 Dukla Praha 2.15 1.27 +0.88 -0.08
Sat 25/04 Mladá Boleslav 0.63 1.25 -0.62 -0.10
Sat 02/05 FK Pardubice 1.18 1.83 -0.65 -0.12
Sun 10/05 FK Pardubice 2.29 1.78 +0.51 -0.10
Sat 16/05 SK Sigma Olomouc 1.70 1.86 -0.16 -0.10
Sat 23/05 SK Sigma Olomouc 0.48 1.86 -1.38 -0.14

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 1.51 npxG and 1.65 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
tied number 4 hardest of 16 in Czech First League
+0.01 xG vs league average
Over 34 league matches
Last 5
number 9 hardest of 14 in Czech First League
−0.02 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

+0.01 xG vs league average · over 34 matches · tied number 4 hardest of 16

  1. SK Sigma Olomouc Away +0.19
  2. SK Sigma Olomouc Home +0.19
  3. FK Pardubice Away −0.17
  4. FK Pardubice Home −0.17
  5. Mladá Boleslav Home −0.15
  6. Dukla Praha Away −0.39
  7. FC Slovan Liberec Home −0.02
  8. AC Sparta Praha Away +0.38
  9. SK Sigma Olomouc Away +0.19
  10. FK Pardubice Home −0.17
  11. 1. FC Slovácko Home −0.22
  12. FK Jablonec Away −0.01
  13. SK Slavia Praha Home +0.89
  14. FK Teplice Away −0.30
  15. Viktoria Plzeň Home +0.62
  16. Bohemians Praha 1905 Away +0.07
  17. Baník Ostrava Home −0.01
  18. FC Zlín Away −0.56
  19. FC Hradec Králové Home −0.09
  20. FC Slovan Liberec Away −0.02
  21. AC Sparta Praha Home +0.38
  22. Mladá Boleslav Away −0.15
  23. SK Sigma Olomouc Home +0.19
  24. FK Pardubice Away −0.17
  25. 1. FC Slovácko Away −0.22
  26. FK Jablonec Home −0.01
  27. SK Slavia Praha Away +0.89
  28. FK Teplice Home −0.30
  29. Viktoria Plzeň Away +0.62
  30. Bohemians Praha 1905 Home +0.07
  31. Baník Ostrava Away −0.01
  32. FC Zlín Home −0.56
  33. FC Hradec Králové Away −0.09
  34. Dukla Praha Home −0.39

Last 5

−0.02 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · number 9 hardest of 14

  1. SK Sigma Olomouc Away +0.19
  2. SK Sigma Olomouc Home +0.19
  3. FK Pardubice Away −0.17
  4. FK Pardubice Home −0.17
  5. Mladá Boleslav Home −0.15

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

MFK Karviná shots and chance quality

High volume, average quality. MFK Karviná take 14.4 shots a match (league 12.8) at 0.11 npxG a shot (league 0.10), #4 in Czech First League for volume and #6 for quality. 64% of their shots come from inside the box (league 64%).

Attack

Shot volume
14.4 shots per match
#4/16
Shot volume (shots per match) across Czech First League, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 SK Slavia Praha 17.7
#2 Viktoria Plzeň 16.6
#3 AC Sparta Praha 15.2
#4 MFK Karviná 14.4
#5 Baník Ostrava 13.7
#6 FC Slovan Liberec 13.5
#7 Bohemians Praha 1905 13.0
#8 SK Sigma Olomouc 12.8
#9 Mladá Boleslav 12.6
#10 1. FC Slovácko 12.1
#11 FK Jablonec 11.6
#12 FC Zlín 10.7
#13 FK Teplice 10.5
#14 FC Hradec Králové 10.4
#15 FK Pardubice 10.4
#16 Dukla Praha 9.8
League avg
12.8
Total
488 shots from 34 matches
Chance quality
0.11 npxG per shot
#6/16
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Czech First League, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 FK Pardubice 0.12
#2 FC Hradec Králové 0.11
#3 SK Slavia Praha 0.11
#4 FK Jablonec 0.11
#5 AC Sparta Praha 0.11
#6 MFK Karviná 0.11
#7 Bohemians Praha 1905 0.10
#8 FK Teplice 0.10
#9 FC Zlín 0.10
#10 Dukla Praha 0.10
#11 SK Sigma Olomouc 0.10
#12 Viktoria Plzeň 0.10
#13 FC Slovan Liberec 0.10
#14 Baník Ostrava 0.09
#15 Mladá Boleslav 0.09
#16 1. FC Slovácko 0.09
League avg
0.10
Total
51.41 npxG from 488 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
14.4 shots per match
#14/16
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Czech First League, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 SK Slavia Praha 8.9
#2 AC Sparta Praha 10.1
#3 Viktoria Plzeň 11.0
#4 SK Sigma Olomouc 11.8
=5 Baník Ostrava 12.1
=5 FC Slovan Liberec 12.1
#7 Bohemians Praha 1905 13.0
#8 FK Jablonec 13.1
#9 1. FC Slovácko 13.3
#10 FK Pardubice 13.3
#11 FK Teplice 13.5
#12 FC Zlín 13.9
#13 Dukla Praha 14.3
#14 MFK Karviná 14.4
#15 Mladá Boleslav 14.5
#16 FC Hradec Králové 15.4
League avg
12.8
Total
488 shots allowed from 34 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.11 npxGA per shot
#15/16
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Czech First League, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 SK Slavia Praha 0.09
#2 AC Sparta Praha 0.09
#3 FC Slovan Liberec 0.09
#4 FC Hradec Králové 0.10
#5 Bohemians Praha 1905 0.10
#6 FK Teplice 0.10
#7 Viktoria Plzeň 0.10
#8 SK Sigma Olomouc 0.10
#9 FK Jablonec 0.10
#10 Dukla Praha 0.10
#11 FK Pardubice 0.11
#12 FC Zlín 0.11
#13 1. FC Slovácko 0.11
#14 Mladá Boleslav 0.11
#15 MFK Karviná 0.11
#16 Baník Ostrava 0.12
League avg
0.10
Total
56.03 npxGA from 488 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

64% inside the box

League avg 64%

From 312 of 488 shots over 34 matches

Shots allowed, location

67% allowed inside the box

League avg 64%

From 326 of 488 shots allowed over 34 matches

How the shot figures are made →

MFK Karviná home and away xG

MFK Karviná per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 17 17
xG / match 1.56 1.71
xGA / match 1.36 2.07
xGD / match +0.20 -0.36
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 1.50 1.18

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every MFK Karviná match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

Away this season

Matches
17
xG / match
1.71
xGA / match
2.07
xGD / match
-0.36
Points
25 of 51
  1. Sat 23/05 SK Sigma Olomouc A xG 0.38 xGA 2.06 xGD -1.68
  2. Sun 10/05 FK Pardubice A xG 3.06 P xGA 1.89 xGD +1.17
  3. Sat 18/04 Dukla Praha A xG 2.15 xGA 1.27 xGD +0.88
  4. Sun 05/04 AC Sparta Praha A xG 0.58 xGA 1.23 xGD -0.65
  5. Sun 15/03 SK Sigma Olomouc A xG 0.86 xGA 3.12 xGD -2.26
  6. Sat 21/02 FK Jablonec A xG 1.69 xGA 3.17 xGD -1.48
  7. Sat 07/02 FK Teplice A xG 1.10 xGA 2.25 xGD -1.15
  8. Sun 14/12 Bohemians Praha 1905 A Best underlying xG 2.84 P xGA 0.67 xGD +2.17
  9. Sat 29/11 FC Zlín A xG 2.11 P xGA 1.86 xGD +0.25
  10. Sun 09/11 FC Slovan Liberec A xG 1.25 xGA 2.74 xGD -1.49
  11. Sat 25/10 Mladá Boleslav A xG 2.85 xGA 1.82 P xGD +1.03
  12. Sat 04/10 FK Pardubice A xG 1.64 xGA 1.96 xGD -0.32
  13. Sat 27/09 1. FC Slovácko A Against the chances xG 1.31 xGA 2.38 xGD -1.07
  14. Sat 13/09 SK Slavia Praha A Weakest underlying xG 1.37 xGA 3.79 xGD -2.42
  15. Sat 23/08 Viktoria Plzeň A xG 1.38 xGA 2.53 P xGD -1.15
  16. Sun 10/08 Baník Ostrava A xG 1.85 P xGA 1.31 xGD +0.54
  17. Sat 26/07 FC Hradec Králové A xG 2.64 xGA 1.17 xGD +1.47

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.79. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

MFK Karviná in Czech First League

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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