Saturday, 05/09/2026 at 15:00
Full timeSK Sigma Olomouc 3:0 Bohemians Praha 1905
SK Sigma Olomouc were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 49%. They won 3–0. The biggest difference was Bohemians Praha 1905's attack: 0.42 xG against 1.06 projected (−0.64).
Goals
- 8' Péter Baráth SK Sigma Olomouc · 0.06 xG chance 1–0
- 20' Václav Sejk SK Sigma Olomouc · 0.94 xG chance 2–0
- 81' Marko Soldo SK Sigma Olomouc · 0.01 xG chance 3–0
The model against the result
- SK Sigma Olomouc
- 49% What happened
- Draw
- 29%
- Bohemians Praha 1905
- 22%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Bohemians Praha 1905 produced 0.64 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 11
- 9
- On target
- 7
- 3
- Inside the box
- 6
- 6
- xG per shot
- 0.16
- 0.05
- Open play xG
- 1.47
- 0.37
- Set-piece xG
- 0.24
- 0.05
- Penalties
- —
- —
SK Sigma Olomouc's shots add up to 1.71 xG; the published figure is 1.78.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
20 shots · 2.13 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- SK Sigma Olomouc
- Bohemians Praha 1905
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.30 xG created 1.06 xGA
- L 0.37 created, 1.34 conceded against FK Jablonec
- D 2.48 created, 1.17 conceded against Mladá Boleslav
- W 0.83 created, 1.40 conceded against SK Líšeň
- W 2.02 created, 1.04 conceded against 1. FC Slovácko
- W 1.48 created, 1.15 conceded against FK Pardubice
- L 0.63 created, 0.24 conceded against Baník Ostrava
1.35 xG created 1.76 xGA
- W 2.17 created, 2.58 conceded against SK Sigma Olomouc
- L 0.73 created, 2.43 conceded against FK Teplice
- D 0.68 created, 0.83 conceded against FC Hradec Králové
- W 1.94 created, 0.84 conceded against FC Zlín
- D 0.81 created, 2.74 conceded against SK Slavia Praha
- D 1.75 created, 1.15 conceded against FK Jablonec
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
2 opportunities flagged0 won2 lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bohemians Praha 1905 to win | 4.50 | +4.0% | Lost |
| Draw | 3.60 | +0.8% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SK Sigma Olomouc | 49.3% | 54.5% | −5.2 pp | 2.03 |
| Draw | 28.8% | 25.3% | +3.6 pp | 3.47 |
| Bohemians Praha 1905 | 21.9% | 20.2% | +1.7 pp | 4.57 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 58.5% | 54.7% | +3.8 pp | 1.71 |
| Both teams not to score | 41.5% | 45.3% | −3.8 pp | 2.41 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.2% | 78.3% | +0.9 pp | 1.26 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 20.8% | 21.7% | −0.9 pp | 4.81 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.9% | 55.3% | −3.3 pp | 1.93 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.1% | 44.7% | +3.3 pp | 2.08 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- SK Sigma Olomouc sample
- 20 matches
- Bohemians Praha 1905 sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 day before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 2 minutes before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.