Viktoria Plzeň 1:1 1. FC Slovácko: xG & match report · Czech First League

Sunday, 30/08/2026 at 17:00

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Match report · Czech First League

Viktoria Plzeň Home 1.28 xG · 14 shots

1. FC Slovácko Away 0.41 xG · 8 shots

11 Viktoria Plzeň had the better chances, but it finished level

Viktoria Plzeň were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 57%. It finished 1–1. The biggest difference was 1. FC Slovácko's attack: 0.41 xG against 0.87 projected (−0.46). Viktoria Plzeň produced 1.28 xG against 1.70 projected (−0.42).

Goals

64' Tomáš Ladra Viktoria Plzeň · 0.05 xG chance 1–0
82' Paul Ndubuisi 1. FC Slovácko · 0.07 xG chance 1–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Viktoria Plzeň: 57%
Draw: 27% What happened
1. FC Slovácko: 16%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Viktoria Plzeň 1.70 1.28 -0.42

1. FC Slovácko 0.87 0.41 -0.46

1. FC Slovácko produced 0.46 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Viktoria Plzeň 1. FC Slovácko

Shots: 14; 8
On target: 4; 3
Inside the box: 8; 4
xG per shot: 0.09; 0.05
Open play xG: 1.05; 0.29
Set-piece xG: 0.21; 0.13
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.28 for Viktoria Plzeň and 0.41 for 1. FC Slovácko.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

22 shots · 1.68 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Viktoria Plzeň
1. FC Slovácko
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Viktoria Plzeň

1.69 xG created 1.44 xGA

W 3.33 created, 0.47 conceded against FK Jablonec
L 0.23 created, 2.48 conceded against SK Slavia Praha
L 1.07 created, 2.50 conceded against FC Slovan Liberec
D 0.80 created, 0.65 conceded against FC Zbrojovka Brno
D 2.49 created, 1.47 conceded against FK Teplice
W 2.22 created, 1.06 conceded against FC Zlín

1. FC Slovácko

0.91 xG created 1.50 xGA

L 0.50 created, 0.29 conceded against FC Zlín
L 0.62 created, 3.73 conceded against SK Slavia Praha
D 0.53 created, 1.42 conceded against SK Líšeň
L 0.58 created, 0.36 conceded against FK Jablonec
L 1.04 created, 2.02 conceded against SK Sigma Olomouc
L 2.18 created, 1.16 conceded against Mladá Boleslav

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Viktoria Plzeň: 0 won · 1 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

9 opportunities flagged5 won4 lost

Lost
Lost
Won
Won
Lost
Won
Lost
Won
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Viktoria Plzeň against 1. FC Slovácko before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Viktoria Plzeň not to score	10.00	+56.9%	Lost
1. FC Slovácko to win	7.50	+42.9%	Lost
Viktoria Plzeň at most 1 goal	3.00	+42.0%	Won
Draw	4.50	+37.5%	Won
Under 1.5 goals	5.00	+27.5%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	2.35	+23.4%	Won
1. FC Slovácko 2+ goals	5.00	+5.1%	Lost
1. FC Slovácko to score	1.73	+4.9%	Won
Both teams to score	1.91	+0.9%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Viktoria Plzeň	56.6%	67.8%	−11.2 pp	1.77
Draw	27.5%	20.1%	+7.4 pp	3.64
1. FC Slovácko	15.9%	12.1%	+3.8 pp	6.30

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Viktoria Plzeň to score	84.3%	90.4%	−6.1 pp	1.19
Viktoria Plzeň not to score	15.7%	9.6%	+6.1 pp	6.37
1. FC Slovácko to score	60.7%	53.7%	+7.1 pp	1.65
1. FC Slovácko not to score	39.3%	46.3%	−7.1 pp	2.55
Both teams to score	52.8%	50.0%	+2.8 pp	1.89
Both teams not to score	47.2%	50.0%	−2.8 pp	2.12
Viktoria Plzeň 2+ goals	52.7%	68.7%	−16.1 pp	1.90
Viktoria Plzeň at most 1 goal	47.3%	31.3%	+16.1 pp	2.11
1. FC Slovácko 2+ goals	21.0%	18.9%	+2.1 pp	4.76
1. FC Slovácko at most 1 goal	79.0%	81.1%	−2.1 pp	1.27
Over 1.5 goals	76.8%	81.1%	−4.3 pp	1.30
Under 1.5 goals	23.2%	18.9%	+4.3 pp	4.31
Over 2.5 goals	48.6%	59.9%	−11.3 pp	2.06
Under 2.5 goals	51.4%	40.1%	+11.3 pp	1.94

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Viktoria Plzeň sample: 20 matches
1. FC Slovácko sample: 20 matches
Computed: 1 day before kick-off
Prices taken: 7 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.