Sunday, 06/09/2026 at 20:15
Full timeJagiellonia Białystok 2:1 Śląsk Wrocław
Jagiellonia Białystok were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 42%. They won 2–1. The biggest difference was Śląsk Wrocław's attack: 1.86 xG against 1.37 projected (+0.49). Jagiellonia Białystok produced 1.39 xG against 1.65 projected (−0.26).
Goals
- 19' Kajetan Szmyt Jagiellonia Białystok · 0.29 xG chance 1–0
- 41' Ousmane Sow Jagiellonia Białystok · 0.04 xG chance 2–0
- 81' Piotr Samiec-Talar (pen.) Śląsk Wrocław · 0.82 xG chance 2–1
The model against the result
- Jagiellonia Białystok
- 42% What happened
- Draw
- 28%
- Śląsk Wrocław
- 29%
Data coverage One of these teams has only 6 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Projected vs produced
Śląsk Wrocław produced 0.49 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 11
- 13
- On target
- 2
- 5
- Inside the box
- 6
- 8
- xG per shot
- 0.12
- 0.14
- Open play xG
- 0.65
- 0.90
- Set-piece xG
- 0.67
- 0.15
- Penalties
- 0
- 1
Jagiellonia Białystok's shots add up to 1.32 xG and Śląsk Wrocław's to 1.87; the published figures are 1.39 and 1.86.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
24 shots · 3.19 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Jagiellonia Białystok
- Śląsk Wrocław
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.68 xG created 1.55 xGA
- W 2.05 created, 2.40 conceded against Zagłębie Lubin
- W 1.16 created, 0.77 conceded against MKS Korona Kielce
- W 0.89 created, 2.01 conceded against Motor Lublin
- L 1.08 created, 1.10 conceded against Widzew Łódź
- W 4.44 created, 1.24 conceded against Raków Częstochowa
- L 0.48 created, 1.78 conceded against Lech Poznań
1.44 xG created 1.53 xGA
- L 1.54 created, 0.67 conceded against Górnik Zabrze
- W 1.52 created, 3.02 conceded against Raków Częstochowa
- D 0.75 created, 1.48 conceded against Cracovia
- L 1.26 created, 0.89 conceded against Zagłębie Lubin
- D 1.83 created, 1.29 conceded against Widzew Łódź
- D 1.76 created, 1.82 conceded against Legia Warszawa
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Pre-match model & market record
3 opportunities flagged1 won2 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Śląsk Wrocław to win | 4.10 | +20.5% | Lost |
| Draw | 4.10 | +15.2% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.57 | +3.7% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jagiellonia Białystok | 42.5% | 55.2% | −12.7 pp | 2.35 |
| Draw | 28.1% | 22.4% | +5.7 pp | 3.56 |
| Śląsk Wrocław | 29.4% | 22.4% | +7.0 pp | 3.40 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 66.0% | 58.9% | +7.1 pp | 1.52 |
| Both teams not to score | 34.0% | 41.1% | −7.1 pp | 2.94 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.3% | 81.1% | +3.2 pp | 1.19 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 15.7% | 18.9% | −3.2 pp | 6.37 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.0% | 59.9% | +0.1 pp | 1.67 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.0% | 40.1% | −0.1 pp | 2.50 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
· 1 warningShow Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Jagiellonia Białystok sample
- 20 matches
- Śląsk Wrocław sample
- 6 matches
- Computed
- 6 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 6 hours before kick-off
Warnings
- Śląsk Wrocław has only 6 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.