Saturday, 17/10/2026 at 14:45
13d 12h to kick-offMotor Lublin – Śląsk Wrocław
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Motor Lublin
- 45%
- Draw
- 29%
- Śląsk Wrocław
- 27%
| Motor Lublin | Draw | Śląsk Wrocław | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.24 | 3.50 | 3.74 |
- Total goals
- 2.89
- Over 2.5 goals
- 57%
- Both teams to score
- 63%
One of these teams has only 9 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Motor Lublin
45% Motor Lublin to win
- Attack
- 15th vs 16th
- Motor Lublin attack v Śląsk Wrocław defence
- Defence
- 13th vs 16th
- Motor Lublin defence v Śląsk Wrocław attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.06 vs -0.28
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.64 – 1.26
- Motor Lublin v Śląsk Wrocław
The fit has seen one of these two sides in only 9 matches, so read all of this as a rough guide.
How the model arrived here →Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Motor Lublin | Śląsk Wrocław |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.39 · 16th | (better) 1.40 · 15th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.53 · 10th | 1.73 · 14th |
| xGD / match | (better) -0.14 · 13th | -0.34 · 15th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.26 · 13th | 1.20 · 15th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.06 | -0.28 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 33% of the model's distribution.
- Motor Lublin clean sheet
- 25%
- Motor Lublin 2+ goals
- 50%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 43%
- Both teams to score: no
- 37%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.0%
- 2:1
- 10.8%
- 1:2
- 8.1%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Motor Lublin sample
- 20 matches
- Śląsk Wrocław sample
- 9 matches
- Home xG sample · Motor Lublin
- 5 matches
- Away xG sample · Śląsk Wrocław
- 5 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Warnings
- Śląsk Wrocław has only 9 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.