Piast Gliwice – Widzew Łódź prediction, 11 October 2026 · Ekstraklasa

Sunday, 11/10/2026 at 14:45

7d 11h to kick-off

Match preview · Ekstraklasa

Piast Gliwice 8th in Ekstraklasa Home 1.44 projected goals

Widzew Łódź 12th in Ekstraklasa Away 1.20 projected goals

Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Best odds updated 10 October, 12:00

What the model expects

expected goals

1.44 1.20

Piast Gliwice Widzew Łódź

Piast Gliwice: 41%
Draw: 30%
Widzew Łódź: 29%

The odds each result is fair at by the model's chance of it, with no margin in it
	Piast Gliwice	Draw	Widzew Łódź
Fair odds	2.45	3.29	3.47

Total goals: 2.65
Over 2.5 goals: 51%
Both teams to score: 59%

Data coverage · full

Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Model vs market

The model sees an edge in 3 outcomes.

Piast Gliwice

Model

40.7%

Market, margin removed

36.1%

Probability gap

+4.6 pp

Edge

+1.9%

Fair odds

2.45

Market odds

2.50 Paddy Power

Price at which a 5% edge begins

2.58

Bookmaker margin

10.7%
Draw

Model

30.4%

Market, margin removed

25.8%

Probability gap

+4.6 pp

Edge

+6.4%

Fair odds

3.29

Market odds

3.50 Paddy Power

Price at which a 5% edge begins

3.45

Bookmaker margin

10.7%
Widzew Łódź

Model

28.9%

Market, margin removed

38.0%

Probability gap

−9.2 pp

Edge

−31.5%

Fair odds

3.47

Market odds

2.38 Paddy Power

Price at which a 5% edge begins

3.64

Bookmaker margin

10.7%

Outcomes with value

3 of 7 rated

Match result Marginal

Piast Gliwice to win

2.50 Paddy Power · fair 2.45 +1.9%

model 40.7% · book 36.1% (no margin)

Measured model skill on this market: +7.19%.

Match result Worth playing

Draw

3.50 Paddy Power · fair 3.29 +6.4%

model 30.4% · book 25.8% (no margin)

No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).

Goals Marginal

Under 2.5 goals

2.10 Paddy Power · fair 2.03 +3.7%

model 49.4% · book 44.0% (no margin)

No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).

No value Over 1.5 goals -6.0% Under 1.5 goals -13.5% Over 2.5 goals -16.4% Widzew Łódź to win -31.5% 10 unpriced

Best opportunity

Piast Gliwice to win

odds · Paddy Power 2.50 value +1.9%

Model 40.7% vs. bookmaker 36.1%, margin removed.

Markets 3 / 7

Match result

Draw model 30.4% · book 25.8% (no margin) +6.4% 3.50 fair 3.29

Worth playing

No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).

Piast Gliwice to win model 40.7% · book 36.1% (no margin) +1.9% 2.50 fair 2.45

Marginal

Measured model skill on this market: +7.19%.

Goals

Under 2.5 goals model 49.4% · book 44.0% (no margin) +3.7% 2.10 fair 2.03

Marginal

No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).

Goals by team

Show every rated outcome

Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →

The model's case

Why the model leans Piast Gliwice

41% Piast Gliwice to win

Attack: 13th vs 7th; Piast Gliwice attack v Widzew Łódź defence
Defence: 8th vs 17th; Piast Gliwice defence v Widzew Łódź attack
Recent xG form: -0.27 vs -0.42; xGD per match, last 6
Projected goals: 1.44 – 1.20; Piast Gliwice v Widzew Łódź

How the model arrived here →

Team comparison

Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.

Overview: Piast Gliwice and Widzew Łódź compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Piast Gliwice	Widzew Łódź
xG / match	1.22 · 18th	(better) 1.57 · 6th
xGA / match	1.87 · 15th	(better) 1.67 · 13th
xGD / match	-0.65 · 17th	(better) -0.10 · 11th
xPts / match	0.96 · 17th	(better) 1.29 · 11th
Last 6 xGD / match	(better) -0.27	-0.42

Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition.

Attack: Piast Gliwice and Widzew Łódź compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Piast Gliwice	Widzew Łódź
xG / match	1.22 · 18th	(better) 1.57 · 6th
npxG / match	1.07	(better) 1.53
Shots / match	14.0 · 12th	(better) 15.3 · 5th
npxG / shot	0.08 · 18th	(better) 0.10 · 9th

Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition.

Defence: Piast Gliwice and Widzew Łódź compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Piast Gliwice	Widzew Łódź
xGA / match	1.87 · 15th	(better) 1.67 · 13th
Shots faced / match	17.2 · 17th	(better) 14.9 · 8th
npxGA / shot	(better) 0.10 · 12th	0.12 · 17th

The last 6 matches, per match.

Form: Piast Gliwice and Widzew Łódź compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Piast Gliwice	Widzew Łódź
Last 6 xG / match	1.23	(better) 1.46
Last 6 xGA / match	(better) 1.50	1.87
Last 6 xGD / match	(better) -0.27	-0.42

Ratings fitted over each club's last 20 matches, recent ones weighted more and adjusted for the opponent.

Piast Gliwice attack → Widzew Łódź defence

Evenly matched

Piast Gliwice attack: 0.95 · 13th
Widzew Łódź defence: 1.00 · 7th

Widzew Łódź attack → Piast Gliwice defence

Evenly matched

Widzew Łódź attack: 0.93 · 17th
Piast Gliwice defence: 1.01 · 8th

The season aggregate places Piast Gliwice 18th of 18; the fitted rating, which adjusts for who each opponent was, places them higher, at 13th of 18. The aggregate counts every opponent alike.

The season aggregate places Widzew Łódź 13th of 18; the fitted rating, which adjusts for who each opponent was, places them higher, at 7th of 18. The aggregate counts every opponent alike.

The season aggregate places Widzew Łódź 6th of 18; the fitted rating, which adjusts for who each opponent was, places them lower, at 17th of 18. The aggregate counts every opponent alike.

The season aggregate places Piast Gliwice 15th of 18; the fitted rating, which adjusts for who each opponent was, places them higher, at 8th of 18. The aggregate counts every opponent alike.

One is the competition's average. An attack above it creates more than an average side does; a defence below it concedes less. Both are fitted over recent matches and adjusted for who the opponent was.

The scorelines behind the model's numbers

No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 34% of the model's distribution.

Piast Gliwice clean sheet: 27%
Piast Gliwice 2+ goals: 44%
Under 2.5 goals: 49%
Both teams to score: no: 41%

Most likely scorelines

1:1: 15.4%
2:1: 10.4%
1:2: 8.4%

Value calculator

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The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.

How value is calculated

Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.

Nothing you type is remembered.

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Match result

Piast Gliwice to win

40.7% 2.45 —

Draw

30.4% 3.29 —

Widzew Łódź to win

28.9% 3.47 —

Goals

Over 1.5 goals

78.4% 1.28 —

Under 1.5 goals

21.6% 4.62 —

Over 2.5 goals

50.6% 1.97 —

Under 2.5 goals

49.4% 2.03 —

Both teams to score

59.3% 1.69 —

Both teams not to score

40.7% 2.46 —

Team goals — Piast Gliwice

Piast Gliwice to score

79.0% 1.27 —

Piast Gliwice not to score

21.0% 4.76 —

Piast Gliwice 2+ goals

43.5% 2.30 —

Piast Gliwice at most 1 goal

56.5% 1.77 —

Team goals — Widzew Łódź

Widzew Łódź to score

72.9% 1.37 —

Widzew Łódź not to score

27.1% 3.68 —

Widzew Łódź 2+ goals

34.4% 2.91 —

Widzew Łódź at most 1 goal

65.6% 1.52 —

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Piast Gliwice sample: 20 matches
Widzew Łódź sample: 20 matches
Home xG sample · Piast Gliwice: 5 matches
Away xG sample · Widzew Łódź: 4 matches
Computed: Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Odds updated: 1 minute ago

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Piast Gliwice

1.23 xG created 1.50 xGA

L 1.16 created, 1.68 conceded against Wieczysta Kraków
D 1.10 created, 0.98 conceded against Legia Warszawa
W 1.57 created, 1.01 conceded against Motor Lublin
W 0.87 created, 1.55 conceded against GKS Katowice
W 1.79 created, 2.33 conceded against Radomiak Radom
L 0.87 created, 1.43 conceded against Pogoń Szczecin

Widzew Łódź

1.46 xG created 1.87 xGA

L 2.31 created, 2.09 conceded against MKS Korona Kielce
D 1.29 created, 1.83 conceded against Śląsk Wrocław
L 0.80 created, 1.89 conceded against Lech Poznań
D 1.59 created, 1.69 conceded against Radomiak Radom
D 1.60 created, 1.46 conceded against Legia Warszawa
D 1.14 created, 2.27 conceded against Wieczysta Kraków

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

0 won · 0 drawn · 2 lost