Widzew Łódź 2:2 Wieczysta Kraków: xG & match report · Ekstraklasa

Friday, 18/09/2026 at 18:30

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Match report · Ekstraklasa

Widzew Łódź Home 1.14 xG · 20 shots

Wieczysta Kraków Away 2.27 xG · 13 shots

22 Wieczysta Kraków had the better chances, but it finished level

Widzew Łódź were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 39%. It finished 2–2. The biggest difference was Wieczysta Kraków's attack: 2.27 xG against 1.33 projected (+0.94). Widzew Łódź produced 1.14 xG against 1.49 projected (−0.35).

Goals

19' Antonio Milić (o.g.) Widzew Łódź · 0.10 xG chance 1–0
37' Lucas Piazón Wieczysta Kraków · 0.57 xG chance 1–1
65' Mario Garcia Widzew Łódź · 0.10 xG chance 2–1
80' Antonio Milić Wieczysta Kraków · 0.10 xG chance 2–2

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Widzew Łódź: 39%
Draw: 30% What happened
Wieczysta Kraków: 31%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 7 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Widzew Łódź 1.49 1.14 -0.35

Wieczysta Kraków 1.33 2.27 +0.94

Wieczysta Kraków produced 0.94 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Widzew Łódź Wieczysta Kraków

Shots: 20; 13
On target: 6; 5
Inside the box: 11; 9
xG per shot: 0.06; 0.17
Open play xG: 0.89; 2.01
Set-piece xG: 0.36; 0.26
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.24 for Widzew Łódź.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

33 shots · 3.52 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Widzew Łódź
Wieczysta Kraków
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Widzew Łódź

1.45 xG created 1.67 xGA

W 1.10 created, 1.08 conceded against Jagiellonia Białystok
L 2.31 created, 2.09 conceded against MKS Korona Kielce
D 1.29 created, 1.83 conceded against Śląsk Wrocław
L 0.80 created, 1.89 conceded against Lech Poznań
D 1.59 created, 1.69 conceded against Radomiak Radom
D 1.60 created, 1.46 conceded against Legia Warszawa

Wieczysta Kraków

1.38 xG created 1.67 xGA

L 0.99 created, 1.69 conceded against Lech Poznań
W 1.68 created, 1.16 conceded against Piast Gliwice
L 1.98 created, 2.08 conceded against Cracovia
L 1.38 created, 1.64 conceded against Wisła Kraków
D 1.02 created, 1.47 conceded against Zagłębie Lubin
L 1.20 created, 1.95 conceded against Pogoń Szczecin

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

4 opportunities flagged2 won2 lost

Lost
Lost
Won
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Widzew Łódź against Wieczysta Kraków before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Wieczysta Kraków to win	3.60	+12.8%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	2.35	+5.8%	Lost
Draw	3.50	+3.3%	Won
Both teams to score	1.62	+1.2%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Widzew Łódź	39.2%	49.0%	−9.8 pp	2.55
Draw	29.5%	25.9%	+3.6 pp	3.39
Wieczysta Kraków	31.3%	25.2%	+6.2 pp	3.19

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	62.7%	57.7%	+5.0 pp	1.60
Both teams not to score	37.3%	42.3%	−5.0 pp	2.68
Over 1.5 goals	81.2%	81.1%	+0.1 pp	1.23
Under 1.5 goals	18.8%	18.9%	−0.1 pp	5.33
Over 2.5 goals	55.0%	59.9%	−5.0 pp	1.82
Under 2.5 goals	45.0%	40.1%	+5.0 pp	2.22

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

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Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Widzew Łódź sample: 20 matches
Wieczysta Kraków sample: 7 matches
Computed: 9 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 9 hours before kick-off

Warnings

Wieczysta Kraków has only 7 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.