Monday, 02/11/2026 at 20:30
Full timeRaków Częstochowa 3:1 Pogoń Szczecin
Raków Częstochowa were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 41%. They won 3–1. The biggest difference was Raków Częstochowa's attack: 2.70 xG against 1.53 projected (+1.17). Pogoń Szczecin produced 0.57 xG against 1.30 projected (−0.73).
Goals
- 5' Darko Churlinov Pogoń Szczecin · 0.17 xG chance 0–1
- 47' Patryk Makuch Raków Częstochowa · 0.41 xG chance 1–1
- 73' Bogdan Racovițan Raków Częstochowa · 0.18 xG chance 2–1
- 90' Tomasz Pieńko Raków Częstochowa · 0.15 xG chance 3–1
The model against the result
- Raków Częstochowa
- 41% What happened
- Draw
- 29%
- Pogoń Szczecin
- 30%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Raków Częstochowa produced 1.17 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 19
- 8
- On target
- 6
- 1
- Inside the box
- 15
- 4
- xG per shot
- 0.14
- 0.07
- Open play xG
- 1.48
- 0.38
- Set-piece xG
- 0.39
- 0.20
- Penalties
- 1
- 0
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.91 for Raków Częstochowa and 0.58 for Pogoń Szczecin.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
27 shots · 3.27 xG
Hover or tap a shot, or step through them with the arrows.
- Raków Częstochowa
- Pogoń Szczecin
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.77 xG created 1.95 xGA
- W 1.02 created, 1.79 conceded against Motor Lublin
- L 2.17 created, 1.38 conceded against Zagłębie Lubin
- L 1.79 created, 3.46 conceded against MKS Korona Kielce
- L 1.00 created, 2.52 conceded against GKS Katowice
- W 2.66 created, 1.53 conceded against Wieczysta Kraków
- L 1.95 created, 1.01 conceded against Wisła Kraków
1.55 xG created 1.23 xGA
- D 1.99 created, 1.67 conceded against Wisła Płock
- W 1.95 created, 1.20 conceded against Wieczysta Kraków
- W 1.43 created, 0.87 conceded against Piast Gliwice
- W 0.87 created, 0.80 conceded against MKS Korona Kielce
- W 2.03 created, 0.92 conceded against GKS Katowice
- W 1.02 created, 1.94 conceded against Radomiak Radom
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
1 qualified edge flagged0 won1 lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 3.50 | +2.4% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raków Częstochowa | 41.1% | 44.5% | −3.5 pp | 2.44 |
| Draw | 29.3% | 26.1% | +3.2 pp | 3.42 |
| Pogoń Szczecin | 29.7% | 29.4% | +0.2 pp | 3.37 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raków Częstochowa to score | 81.1% | 79.2% | +1.9 pp | 1.23 |
| Raków Częstochowa not to score | 18.9% | 20.8% | −1.9 pp | 5.28 |
| Pogoń Szczecin to score | 75.4% | 72.3% | +3.0 pp | 1.33 |
| Pogoń Szczecin not to score | 24.6% | 27.7% | −3.0 pp | 4.06 |
| Both teams to score | 62.8% | 58.9% | +3.9 pp | 1.59 |
| Both teams not to score | 37.2% | 41.1% | −3.9 pp | 2.69 |
| Raków Częstochowa 2+ goals | 46.8% | 50.0% | −3.2 pp | 2.14 |
| Raków Częstochowa at most 1 goal | 53.2% | 50.0% | +3.2 pp | 1.88 |
| Pogoń Szczecin 2+ goals | 38.0% | 37.5% | +0.5 pp | 2.63 |
| Pogoń Szczecin at most 1 goal | 62.0% | 62.5% | −0.5 pp | 1.61 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.5% | 76.6% | +4.9 pp | 1.23 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 18.5% | 23.4% | −4.9 pp | 5.40 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.4% | 55.3% | +0.1 pp | 1.81 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.6% | 44.7% | −0.1 pp | 2.24 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Raków Częstochowa sample
- 20 matches
- Pogoń Szczecin sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 53 minutes before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 2 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.