Saturday, 24/10/2026 at 16:00
20d 15h to kick-offWisła Kraków – Raków Częstochowa
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Wisła Kraków
- 58%
- Draw
- 25%
- Raków Częstochowa
- 17%
| Wisła Kraków | Draw | Raków Częstochowa | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.71 | 4.07 | 5.84 |
- Total goals
- 3.11
- Over 2.5 goals
- 62%
- Both teams to score
- 63%
One of these teams has only 9 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Wisła Kraków
58% Wisła Kraków to win
- Attack
- 2nd vs 17th
- Wisła Kraków attack v Raków Częstochowa defence
- Defence
- 3rd vs 6th
- Wisła Kraków defence v Raków Częstochowa attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.72 vs -1.44
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 2.02 – 1.09
- Wisła Kraków v Raków Częstochowa
The fit has seen one of these two sides in only 9 matches, so read all of this as a rough guide.
How the model arrived here →Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Wisła Kraków | Raków Częstochowa |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.99 · 2nd | 1.42 · 12th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.10 · 3rd | 2.36 · 18th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.89 · 2nd | -0.94 · 18th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.97 · 2nd | 0.93 · 18th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.72 | -1.45 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 32% of the model's distribution.
- Wisła Kraków clean sheet
- 30%
- Wisła Kraków 2+ goals
- 62%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 38%
- Both teams to score: no
- 37%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 11.9%
- 2:1
- 11.6%
- 2:0
- 8.9%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Wisła Kraków sample
- 9 matches
- Raków Częstochowa sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Wisła Kraków
- 5 matches
- Away xG sample · Raków Częstochowa
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Warnings
- Wisła Kraków has only 9 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.