Friday, 04/09/2026 at 19:00
Full timeAalesunds FK 2:0 IK Start
IK Start were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 38%. Aalesunds FK won 2–0. The biggest difference was Aalesunds FK's attack: 2.42 xG against 1.40 projected (+1.02).
Goals
- 20' Elias Kristoffersen Hagen Aalesunds FK · 0.49 xG chance 1–0
- 24' Mathias Christensen Aalesunds FK · 0.02 xG chance 2–0
The model against the result
- Aalesunds FK
- 33% What happened
- Draw
- 29%
- IK Start
- 38%
Data coverage Both teams have at least 10 matches in the model window, but at least one has fewer than the full 20.
Projected vs produced
Aalesunds FK produced 1.02 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 24
- 25
- On target
- 12
- 7
- Inside the box
- 16
- 14
- xG per shot
- 0.10
- 0.07
- Open play xG
- 2.13
- 1.05
- Set-piece xG
- 0.31
- 0.71
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.47 for Aalesunds FK and 1.74 for IK Start.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
49 shots · 4.20 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Aalesunds FK
- IK Start
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.63 xG created 2.21 xGA
1.85 xG created 1.45 xGA
- L 1.29 created, 1.83 conceded against SK Brann
- L 0.67 created, 1.57 conceded against Rosenborg BK
- W 1.47 created, 0.54 conceded against Kristiansund BK
- L 2.48 created, 1.57 conceded against Viking FK
- L 1.77 created, 1.53 conceded against Fredrikstad FK
- W 3.43 created, 1.65 conceded against KFUM Oslo
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
3 opportunities flagged1 won2 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| IK Start to win | 3.00 | +15.0% | Lost |
| Draw | 3.90 | +13.1% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.50 | +6.0% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aalesunds FK | 32.6% | 44.7% | −12.0 pp | 3.06 |
| Draw | 29.0% | 24.1% | +5.0 pp | 3.45 |
| IK Start | 38.3% | 31.3% | +7.1 pp | 2.61 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 64.7% | 64.5% | +0.2 pp | 1.55 |
| Both teams not to score | 35.3% | 35.5% | −0.2 pp | 2.83 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.9% | 82.8% | +0.1 pp | 1.21 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 17.1% | 17.2% | −0.1 pp | 5.85 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.6% | 62.5% | −4.9 pp | 1.74 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42.4% | 37.5% | +4.9 pp | 2.36 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Aalesunds FK sample
- 20 matches
- IK Start sample
- 18 matches
- Computed
- 4 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 4 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.