Bodø/Glimt 3:2 Sandefjord Fotball: xG & match report · Eliteserien

Monday, 14/09/2026 at 19:00

Full time

Match report · Eliteserien

Bodø/Glimt Home 3.16 xG · 27 shots

Sandefjord Fotball Away 1.01 xG · 8 shots

32 The scoreline reflected the chances

Bodø/Glimt were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 64%. They won 3–2. The biggest difference was Bodø/Glimt's attack: 3.16 xG against 1.88 projected (+1.28). Sandefjord Fotball produced 1.01 xG against 0.74 projected (+0.27).

Goals

35' Jens Petter Hauge Bodø/Glimt · 0.15 xG chance 1–0
54' Andreas Helmersen Bodø/Glimt · 0.09 xG chance 2–0
58' Andreas Helmersen Bodø/Glimt · 0.13 xG chance 3–0
69' Jakob Maslo Dunsby Sandefjord Fotball · 0.20 xG chance 3–1
90' Evangelos Patoulidis Sandefjord Fotball · 0.04 xG chance 3–2

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Bodø/Glimt: 64% What happened
Draw: 24%
Sandefjord Fotball: 11%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Bodø/Glimt 1.88 3.16 +1.28

Sandefjord Fotball 0.74 1.01 +0.27

Bodø/Glimt produced 1.28 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Bodø/Glimt Sandefjord Fotball

Shots: 27; 8
On target: 9; 3
Inside the box: 21; 7
xG per shot: 0.11; 0.12
Open play xG: 2.68; 0.92
Set-piece xG: 0.18; 0.02
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.87 for Bodø/Glimt and 0.98 for Sandefjord Fotball.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

35 shots · 3.80 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Bodø/Glimt
Sandefjord Fotball
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Bodø/Glimt

2.20 xG created 0.70 xGA

W 2.50 created, 0.19 conceded against HamKam
W 2.18 created, 0.69 conceded against Sandefjord Fotball
W 2.15 created, 0.38 conceded against Lillestrøm SK
W 1.89 created, 1.30 conceded against Vålerenga IF
W 2.93 created, 1.04 conceded against Rosenborg BK
W 1.55 created, 0.59 conceded against Fredrikstad FK

Sandefjord Fotball

1.06 xG created 1.87 xGA

L 0.69 created, 2.18 conceded against Bodø/Glimt
L 1.05 created, 1.44 conceded against Fredrikstad FK
L 1.33 created, 2.25 conceded against KFUM Oslo
W 1.69 created, 2.43 conceded against Sarpsborg 08
D 0.97 created, 0.74 conceded against SK Brann
D 0.62 created, 2.16 conceded against Viking FK

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Bodø/Glimt: 3 won · 0 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

7 opportunities flagged0 won7 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Bodø/Glimt against Sandefjord Fotball before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Bodø/Glimt not to score	19.00	+149.1%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	10.00	+124.6%	Lost
Bodø/Glimt at most 1 goal	5.00	+109.7%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	4.00	+100.3%	Lost
Draw	8.00	+95.7%	Lost
Sandefjord Fotball to win	13.00	+45.8%	Lost
Sandefjord Fotball at most 1 goal	1.20	+0.6%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Bodø/Glimt	64.3%	80.9%	−16.6 pp	1.55
Draw	24.5%	11.8%	+12.7 pp	4.09
Sandefjord Fotball	11.2%	7.3%	+4.0 pp	8.91

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Bodø/Glimt to score	86.9%	94.9%	−8.0 pp	1.15
Bodø/Glimt not to score	13.1%	5.1%	+8.0 pp	7.63
Sandefjord Fotball to score	55.2%	55.7%	−0.6 pp	1.81
Sandefjord Fotball not to score	44.8%	44.3%	+0.6 pp	2.23
Both teams to score	49.4%	52.0%	−2.6 pp	2.02
Both teams not to score	50.6%	48.0%	+2.6 pp	1.98
Bodø/Glimt 2+ goals	58.1%	81.1%	−23.0 pp	1.72
Bodø/Glimt at most 1 goal	41.9%	18.9%	+23.0 pp	2.38
Sandefjord Fotball 2+ goals	16.1%	21.7%	−5.5 pp	6.19
Sandefjord Fotball at most 1 goal	83.9%	78.3%	+5.5 pp	1.19
Over 1.5 goals	77.5%	90.4%	−12.9 pp	1.29
Under 1.5 goals	22.5%	9.6%	+12.9 pp	4.45
Over 2.5 goals	49.9%	76.2%	−26.3 pp	2.00
Under 2.5 goals	50.1%	23.8%	+26.3 pp	2.00

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Bodø/Glimt sample: 20 matches
Sandefjord Fotball sample: 20 matches
Computed: 10 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 10 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.