Friday, 04/09/2026 at 21:00
Full timeSandefjord Fotball 1:1 Viking FK
Viking FK were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 38%. It finished 1–1. The biggest difference was Viking FK's attack: 2.16 xG against 1.34 projected (+0.82). Sandefjord Fotball produced 0.62 xG against 1.20 projected (−0.58).
Goals
- 60' Tobias Borkeeiet Sandefjord Fotball · 0.08 xG chance 1–0
- 90' Henrik Bjørdal Viking FK · 0.06 xG chance 1–1
The model against the result
- Sandefjord Fotball
- 31%
- Draw
- 31% What happened
- Viking FK
- 38%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Viking FK produced 0.82 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 12
- 18
- On target
- 1
- 4
- Inside the box
- 6
- 15
- xG per shot
- 0.05
- 0.12
- Open play xG
- 0.43
- 0.75
- Set-piece xG
- 0.19
- 0.59
- Penalties
- 0
- 1
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
30 shots · 2.78 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Sandefjord Fotball
- Viking FK
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.02 xG created 1.87 xGA
1.88 xG created 1.77 xGA
- W 0.87 created, 1.35 conceded against Lillestrøm SK
- D 1.70 created, 1.98 conceded against Aalesunds FK
- W 1.57 created, 2.48 conceded against IK Start
- W 2.83 created, 2.57 conceded against Sarpsborg 08
- L 1.86 created, 1.37 conceded against Rosenborg BK
- W 2.42 created, 0.87 conceded against Aalesunds FK
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
7 opportunities flagged3 won4 lost
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
- Won
- Won
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Viking FK not to score | 7.00 | +64.3% | Lost |
| Viking FK at most 1 goal | 2.50 | +51.0% | Won |
| Under 1.5 goals | 6.00 | +41.2% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.70 | +40.8% | Won |
| Draw | 4.10 | +28.5% | Won |
| Sandefjord Fotball to win | 3.90 | +20.8% | Lost |
| Both teams not to score | 2.50 | +5.9% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sandefjord Fotball | 31.0% | 23.8% | +7.2 pp | 3.23 |
| Draw | 31.3% | 22.6% | +8.7 pp | 3.19 |
| Viking FK | 37.7% | 53.6% | −15.9 pp | 2.65 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sandefjord Fotball to score | 72.9% | 70.9% | +2.0 pp | 1.37 |
| Sandefjord Fotball not to score | 27.1% | 29.1% | −2.0 pp | 3.69 |
| Viking FK to score | 76.5% | 86.4% | −9.9 pp | 1.31 |
| Viking FK not to score | 23.5% | 13.6% | +9.9 pp | 4.26 |
| Both teams to score | 57.6% | 62.5% | −4.9 pp | 1.74 |
| Both teams not to score | 42.4% | 37.5% | +4.9 pp | 2.36 |
| Sandefjord Fotball 2+ goals | 34.5% | 35.5% | −1.0 pp | 2.90 |
| Sandefjord Fotball at most 1 goal | 65.5% | 64.5% | +1.0 pp | 1.53 |
| Viking FK 2+ goals | 39.6% | 62.5% | −22.9 pp | 2.52 |
| Viking FK at most 1 goal | 60.4% | 37.5% | +22.9 pp | 1.66 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.5% | 84.2% | −7.8 pp | 1.31 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 23.5% | 15.8% | +7.8 pp | 4.25 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.8% | 65.2% | −17.3 pp | 2.09 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 52.2% | 34.8% | +17.3 pp | 1.92 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
Show Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Sandefjord Fotball sample
- 20 matches
- Viking FK sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 6 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 6 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.