Sunday, 01/11/2026 at 17:00
28d 14h to kick-offFredrikstad FK – Rosenborg BK
Model updated 4 October, 03:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Fredrikstad FK
- 33%
- Draw
- 32%
- Rosenborg BK
- 35%
| Fredrikstad FK | Draw | Rosenborg BK | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.00 | 3.15 | 2.87 |
- Total goals
- 2.51
- Over 2.5 goals
- 47%
- Both teams to score
- 57%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model can't separate them
35% Rosenborg BK to win
- Attack
- 5th vs 9th
- Rosenborg BK attack v Fredrikstad FK defence
- Defence
- 6th vs 13th
- Rosenborg BK defence v Fredrikstad FK attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.17 vs -0.04
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.24 – 1.27
- Fredrikstad FK v Rosenborg BK
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Fredrikstad FK | Rosenborg BK |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.20 · 12th | (better) 1.56 · 6th |
| xGA / match | 1.67 · 13th | (better) 1.42 · 6th |
| xGD / match | -0.47 · 12th | (better) +0.14 · 5th |
| xPts / match | 1.10 · 11th | (better) 1.52 · 5th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.04 | (better) +0.17 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- Rosenborg BK clean sheet
- 26%
- Rosenborg BK 2+ goals
- 37%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 53%
- Both teams to score: no
- 43%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 16.3%
- 1:2
- 9.5%
- 2:1
- 9.3%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Fredrikstad FK sample
- 20 matches
- Rosenborg BK sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Fredrikstad FK
- 10 matches
- Away xG sample · Rosenborg BK
- 10 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 03:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.