Fredrikstad FK 1:1 Sarpsborg 08: xG & match report · Eliteserien

Sunday, 13/09/2026 at 19:15

Full time

Match report · Eliteserien

Fredrikstad FK Home 1.40 xG · 14 shots

Sarpsborg 08 Away 0.23 xG · 6 shots

11 Fredrikstad FK had the better chances, but it finished level

Sarpsborg 08 were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 38%. It finished 1–1. The biggest difference was Sarpsborg 08's attack: 0.23 xG against 1.34 projected (−1.11).

Goals

19' Max Nilsson Fredrikstad FK · 0.05 xG chance 1–0
28' Olaus Skarsem Sarpsborg 08 · 0.05 xG chance 1–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Fredrikstad FK: 30%
Draw: 31% What happened
Sarpsborg 08: 38%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Fredrikstad FK 1.18 1.40 +0.22

Sarpsborg 08 1.34 0.23 -1.11

Sarpsborg 08 produced 1.11 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Fredrikstad FK Sarpsborg 08

Shots: 14; 6
On target: 2; 4
Inside the box: 11; 1
xG per shot: 0.10; 0.04
Open play xG: 0.89; 0.14
Set-piece xG: 0.53; 0.09
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.40 for Fredrikstad FK.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

20 shots · 1.65 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Fredrikstad FK
Sarpsborg 08
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Fredrikstad FK

1.39 xG created 1.76 xGA

L 0.54 created, 2.54 conceded against Rosenborg BK
W 1.44 created, 1.05 conceded against Sandefjord Fotball
W 1.53 created, 1.77 conceded against IK Start
W 1.15 created, 1.28 conceded against Kristiansund BK
W 3.11 created, 2.34 conceded against Lillestrøm SK
L 0.59 created, 1.55 conceded against Bodø/Glimt

Sarpsborg 08

1.72 xG created 1.64 xGA

W 1.69 created, 1.03 conceded against HamKam
D 1.09 created, 1.62 conceded against Molde FK
L 2.57 created, 2.83 conceded against Viking FK
L 2.43 created, 1.69 conceded against Sandefjord Fotball
D 0.51 created, 1.38 conceded against Tromsø IL
D 2.04 created, 1.29 conceded against Vålerenga IF

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Fredrikstad FK: 1 won · 1 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

5 opportunities flagged3 won2 lost

Won
Lost
Won
Won
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Fredrikstad FK against Sarpsborg 08 before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Fredrikstad FK at most 1 goal	1.73	+14.9%	Won
Fredrikstad FK not to score	4.00	+11.6%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	2.10	+11.1%	Won
Draw	3.50	+10.1%	Won
Sarpsborg 08 to win	2.63	+0.5%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Fredrikstad FK	30.3%	38.0%	−7.7 pp	3.30
Draw	31.5%	26.6%	+4.9 pp	3.18
Sarpsborg 08	38.3%	35.4%	+2.8 pp	2.61

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Fredrikstad FK to score	72.1%	76.6%	−4.5 pp	1.39
Fredrikstad FK not to score	27.9%	23.4%	+4.5 pp	3.58
Sarpsborg 08 to score	76.5%	75.0%	+1.5 pp	1.31
Sarpsborg 08 not to score	23.5%	25.0%	−1.5 pp	4.25
Both teams to score	57.0%	58.9%	−1.9 pp	1.75
Both teams not to score	43.0%	41.1%	+1.9 pp	2.33
Fredrikstad FK 2+ goals	33.5%	46.3%	−12.9 pp	2.99
Fredrikstad FK at most 1 goal	66.5%	53.7%	+12.9 pp	1.50
Sarpsborg 08 2+ goals	39.6%	42.3%	−2.8 pp	2.53
Sarpsborg 08 at most 1 goal	60.4%	57.7%	+2.8 pp	1.65
Over 1.5 goals	75.9%	76.6%	−0.7 pp	1.32
Under 1.5 goals	24.1%	23.4%	+0.7 pp	4.15
Over 2.5 goals	47.1%	55.3%	−8.2 pp	2.12
Under 2.5 goals	52.9%	44.7%	+8.2 pp	1.89

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Fredrikstad FK sample: 20 matches
Sarpsborg 08 sample: 20 matches
Computed: 9 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 9 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.