Sunday, 20/09/2026 at 14:30
Full timeVålerenga IF 1:1 Fredrikstad FK
Vålerenga IF were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 49%. It finished 1–1. The biggest difference was Fredrikstad FK's attack: 0.71 xG against 1.09 projected (−0.38).
Goals
- 52' Solomon Owusu Fredrikstad FK · 0.02 xG chance 0–1
- 76' Sebastian Jarl Vålerenga IF · 0.35 xG chance 1–1
The model against the result
- Vålerenga IF
- 49%
- Draw
- 29% What happened
- Fredrikstad FK
- 22%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Fredrikstad FK produced 0.38 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 16
- 9
- On target
- 3
- 2
- Inside the box
- 7
- 5
- xG per shot
- 0.10
- 0.08
- Open play xG
- 0.97
- 0.69
- Set-piece xG
- 0.58
- 0.00
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.71 for Fredrikstad FK.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
25 shots · 2.24 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Vålerenga IF
- Fredrikstad FK
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.63 xG created 1.64 xGA
1.54 xG created 1.37 xGA
- W 1.44 created, 1.05 conceded against Sandefjord Fotball
- W 1.53 created, 1.77 conceded against IK Start
- W 1.15 created, 1.28 conceded against Kristiansund BK
- W 3.11 created, 2.34 conceded against Lillestrøm SK
- L 0.59 created, 1.55 conceded against Bodø/Glimt
- D 1.40 created, 0.23 conceded against Sarpsborg 08
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
4 opportunities flagged2 won2 lost
- Won
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.40 | +12.7% | Won |
| Under 1.5 goals | 5.50 | +10.1% | Lost |
| Draw | 3.80 | +8.8% | Won |
| Both teams not to score | 2.50 | +1.4% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vålerenga IF | 49.2% | 48.3% | +0.9 pp | 2.03 |
| Draw | 28.6% | 24.8% | +3.8 pp | 3.49 |
| Fredrikstad FK | 22.2% | 26.9% | −4.7 pp | 4.51 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 59.4% | 62.5% | −3.1 pp | 1.68 |
| Both teams not to score | 40.6% | 37.5% | +3.1 pp | 2.46 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.0% | 82.8% | −2.8 pp | 1.25 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 20.0% | 17.2% | +2.8 pp | 5.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.1% | 61.0% | −8.0 pp | 1.88 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.9% | 39.0% | +8.0 pp | 2.13 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Vålerenga IF sample
- 20 matches
- Fredrikstad FK sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 day before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 day before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.