Sunday, 11/10/2026 at 19:15
7d 18h to kick-offLillestrøm SK – Molde FK
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Best odds updated 10 October, 12:00
What the model expects
- Lillestrøm SK
- 31%
- Draw
- 32%
- Molde FK
- 38%
| Lillestrøm SK | Draw | Molde FK | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.25 | 3.17 | 2.66 |
- Total goals
- 2.51
- Over 2.5 goals
- 47%
- Both teams to score
- 57%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 8 outcomes.
-
Lillestrøm SK
- Model
- 30.8%
- Market, margin removed
- 31.7%
- Probability gap
- −0.9 pp
- Edge
- −10.7%
- Fair odds
- 3.25
- Market odds
- 2.90 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.41
- Bookmaker margin
- 8.8%
-
Draw
- Model
- 31.6%
- Market, margin removed
- 24.5%
- Probability gap
- +7.0 pp
- Edge
- +18.3%
- Fair odds
- 3.17
- Market odds
- 3.75 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.33
- Bookmaker margin
- 8.8%
-
Molde FK
- Model
- 37.7%
- Market, margin removed
- 43.8%
- Probability gap
- −6.1 pp
- Edge
- −20.9%
- Fair odds
- 2.66
- Market odds
- 2.10 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 2.79
- Bookmaker margin
- 8.8%
Outcomes with value
Molde FK not to score
Measured model skill on this market: +2.56%.
Molde FK at most 1 goal
Measured model skill on this market: +2.61%.
Lillestrøm SK not to score
Measured model skill on this market: +3.77%.
Lillestrøm SK at most 1 goal
Measured model skill on this market: +3.62%.
Under 1.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).
Under 2.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Both teams not to score
No measured model skill on this market (-0.43%).
Draw
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Best opportunity
Molde FK not to score
Model 23.9% vs. bookmaker 15.8%, margin removed.
Match result
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Both teams to score
No measured model skill on this market (-0.43%).
Goals by team
Measured model skill on this market: +2.56%.
Measured model skill on this market: +2.61%.
Measured model skill on this market: +3.77%.
Measured model skill on this market: +3.62%.
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model leans Molde FK
38% Molde FK to win
- Attack
- 3rd vs 7th
- Molde FK attack v Lillestrøm SK defence
- Defence
- 3rd vs 12th
- Molde FK defence v Lillestrøm SK attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.31 vs -0.28
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.19 – 1.32
- Lillestrøm SK v Molde FK
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Lillestrøm SK | Molde FK |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.56 · 7th | (better) 1.83 · 3rd |
| xGA / match | 1.46 · 7th | (better) 1.17 · 3rd |
| xGD / match | +0.10 · 7th | (better) +0.66 · 3rd |
| xPts / match | 1.46 · 6th | (better) 1.80 · 3rd |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.28 | (better) +1.31 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- Molde FK clean sheet
- 28%
- Molde FK 2+ goals
- 39%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 53%
- Both teams to score: no
- 43%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 16.2%
- 1:2
- 9.9%
- 2:1
- 8.7%
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Lillestrøm SK sample
- 20 matches
- Molde FK sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Lillestrøm SK
- 10 matches
- Away xG sample · Molde FK
- 10 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
- Odds updated
- 1 minute ago
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.