SK Brann 1:2 Lillestrøm SK: xG & match report · Eliteserien

Saturday, 05/09/2026 at 18:00

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Match report · Eliteserien

SK Brann Home 1.97 xG · 23 shots

Lillestrøm SK Away 1.33 xG · 8 shots

12 The result went against the chances

SK Brann were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 39%. Lillestrøm SK won 2–1. The biggest difference was SK Brann's attack: 1.97 xG against 1.30 projected (+0.67).

Goals

6' Felix Vá Lillestrøm SK · 0.33 xG chance 0–1
22' Fredrik Gulbrandsen Lillestrøm SK · 0.29 xG chance 0–2
89' Bård Finne SK Brann · 0.03 xG chance 1–2

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

SK Brann: 39%
Draw: 32%
Lillestrøm SK: 29% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have at least 10 matches in the model window, but at least one has fewer than the full 20.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

SK Brann 1.30 1.97 +0.67

Lillestrøm SK 1.11 1.33 +0.22

SK Brann produced 0.67 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

SK Brann Lillestrøm SK

Shots: 23; 8
On target: 3; 4
Inside the box: 17; 6
xG per shot: 0.08; 0.17
Open play xG: 0.95; 1.13
Set-piece xG: 0.94; 0.25
Penalties: —; —

SK Brann's shots add up to 1.89 xG and Lillestrøm SK's to 1.38; the published figures are 1.97 and 1.33.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

31 shots · 3.27 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

SK Brann
Lillestrøm SK
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

SK Brann

1.47 xG created 1.35 xGA

W 1.83 created, 1.29 conceded against IK Start
W 0.71 created, 1.36 conceded against Molde FK
L 2.37 created, 2.34 conceded against Vålerenga IF
W 0.78 created, 1.93 conceded against Rosenborg BK
W 2.38 created, 0.24 conceded against HamKam
D 0.74 created, 0.97 conceded against Sandefjord Fotball

Lillestrøm SK

1.75 xG created 1.66 xGA

W 1.24 created, 0.46 conceded against KFUM Oslo
L 1.35 created, 0.87 conceded against Viking FK
L 0.38 created, 2.15 conceded against Bodø/Glimt
L 2.39 created, 2.45 conceded against Rosenborg BK
D 2.80 created, 0.92 conceded against KFUM Oslo
L 2.34 created, 3.11 conceded against Fredrikstad FK

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

5 opportunities flagged1 won4 lost

Lost
Lost
Won
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on SK Brann against Lillestrøm SK before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Under 2.5 goals	2.60	+45.1%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	5.50	+44.2%	Lost
Lillestrøm SK to win	4.33	+25.7%	Won
Draw	3.90	+25.5%	Lost
Both teams not to score	2.50	+12.9%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
SK Brann	38.8%	54.7%	−15.9 pp	2.58
Draw	32.2%	23.8%	+8.3 pp	3.11
Lillestrøm SK	29.0%	21.5%	+7.5 pp	3.45

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	54.8%	62.5%	−7.7 pp	1.82
Both teams not to score	45.2%	37.5%	+7.7 pp	2.21
Over 1.5 goals	73.8%	82.8%	−9.0 pp	1.36
Under 1.5 goals	26.2%	17.2%	+9.0 pp	3.81
Over 2.5 goals	44.2%	63.8%	−19.6 pp	2.26
Under 2.5 goals	55.8%	36.2%	+19.6 pp	1.79

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
SK Brann sample: 20 matches
Lillestrøm SK sample: 18 matches
Computed: 2 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 3 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.