Sunday, 20/09/2026 at 14:30
Full timeAZ Alkmaar 1:0 SC Telstar
AZ Alkmaar were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 63%. They won 1–0. The biggest difference was SC Telstar's attack: 0.10 xG against 0.99 projected (−0.89). AZ Alkmaar produced 2.35 xG against 2.09 projected (+0.26).
Goals
- 19' Mexx Meerdink AZ Alkmaar · 0.11 xG chance 1–0
The model against the result
- AZ Alkmaar
- 63% What happened
- Draw
- 23%
- SC Telstar
- 14%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
SC Telstar produced 0.89 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 17
- 3
- On target
- 8
- 1
- Inside the box
- 13
- 2
- xG per shot
- 0.14
- 0.08
- Open play xG
- 2.20
- 0.01
- Set-piece xG
- 0.14
- 0.22
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.35 for AZ Alkmaar and 0.22 for SC Telstar.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
20 shots · 2.57 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- AZ Alkmaar
- SC Telstar
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
2.58 xG created 1.10 xGA
- W 2.67 created, 0.95 conceded against ADO Den Haag
- W 2.10 created, 0.91 conceded against FC Utrecht
- W 4.35 created, 0.44 conceded against Fortuna Sittard
- W 2.39 created, 1.82 conceded against Go Ahead Eagles
- W 1.51 created, 1.52 conceded against SC Heerenveen
- D 2.48 created, 0.93 conceded against Willem II Tilburg
1.26 xG created 2.00 xGA
- W 1.66 created, 2.15 conceded against NEC Nijmegen
- L 1.40 created, 2.55 conceded against Sparta Rotterdam
- L 1.13 created, 2.13 conceded against AFC Ajax
- D 2.12 created, 0.98 conceded against SC Cambuur
- L 0.52 created, 2.65 conceded against FC Twente
- D 0.71 created, 1.54 conceded against SC Heerenveen
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
6 opportunities flagged3 won3 lost
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar not to score | 15.00 | +56.9% | Lost |
| AZ Alkmaar at most 1 goal | 4.33 | +56.3% | Won |
| SC Telstar to win | 10.00 | +42.1% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.60 | +39.8% | Won |
| Draw | 6.00 | +39.7% | Lost |
| Under 1.5 goals | 9.00 | +37.4% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar | 62.5% | 75.0% | −12.5 pp | 1.60 |
| Draw | 23.3% | 15.6% | +7.7 pp | 4.29 |
| SC Telstar | 14.2% | 9.4% | +4.8 pp | 7.04 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar to score | 89.5% | 93.6% | −4.0 pp | 1.12 |
| AZ Alkmaar not to score | 10.5% | 6.4% | +4.0 pp | 9.56 |
| SC Telstar to score | 65.5% | 62.5% | +3.0 pp | 1.53 |
| SC Telstar not to score | 34.5% | 37.5% | −3.0 pp | 2.90 |
| Both teams to score | 60.0% | 58.9% | +1.1 pp | 1.67 |
| Both teams not to score | 40.0% | 41.1% | −1.1 pp | 2.50 |
| AZ Alkmaar 2+ goals | 63.9% | 78.3% | −14.4 pp | 1.56 |
| AZ Alkmaar at most 1 goal | 36.1% | 21.7% | +14.4 pp | 2.77 |
| SC Telstar 2+ goals | 25.9% | 26.9% | −1.0 pp | 3.87 |
| SC Telstar at most 1 goal | 74.1% | 73.1% | +1.0 pp | 1.35 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.7% | 89.4% | −4.6 pp | 1.18 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 15.3% | 10.6% | +4.6 pp | 6.55 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.2% | 73.7% | −12.5 pp | 1.64 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.8% | 26.3% | +12.5 pp | 2.57 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- AZ Alkmaar sample
- 20 matches
- SC Telstar sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 day before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 day before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.