Saturday, 07/11/2026 at 21:00
34d 12h to kick-offExcelsior – Go Ahead Eagles
Model updated 4 October, 09:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Excelsior
- 41%
- Draw
- 28%
- Go Ahead Eagles
- 32%
| Excelsior | Draw | Go Ahead Eagles | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.46 | 3.60 | 3.17 |
- Total goals
- 3.10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 62%
- Both teams to score
- 67%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Excelsior
41% Excelsior to win
- Attack
- 14th vs 14th
- Excelsior attack v Go Ahead Eagles defence
- Defence
- 6th vs 7th
- Excelsior defence v Go Ahead Eagles attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.47 vs +0.17
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.65 – 1.45
- Excelsior v Go Ahead Eagles
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Excelsior | Go Ahead Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.35 · 12th | (better) 1.91 · 6th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.44 · 7th | 1.63 · 8th |
| xGD / match | -0.09 · 7th | (better) +0.28 · 6th |
| xPts / match | 1.31 · 7th | (better) 1.59 · 6th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.47 | (better) +0.17 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 32% of the model's distribution.
- Excelsior clean sheet
- 21%
- Excelsior 2+ goals
- 51%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 38%
- Both teams to score: no
- 33%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 13.0%
- 2:1
- 10.1%
- 1:2
- 8.8%
Check your bookmaker's price
Enter a bookmaker's price to compare it with the model's fair odds.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
Show
Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Excelsior sample
- 20 matches
- Go Ahead Eagles sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Excelsior
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Go Ahead Eagles
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 09:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.