Go Ahead Eagles 1:1 FC Groningen: xG & match report · Eredivisie

Saturday, 12/09/2026 at 18:45

Full time

Match report · Eredivisie

Go Ahead Eagles Home 2.23 xG · 25 shots

FC Groningen Away 0.16 xG · 4 shots

11 Go Ahead Eagles had the better chances, but it finished level

FC Groningen were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 46%. It finished 1–1. The biggest difference was FC Groningen's attack: 0.16 xG against 2.00 projected (−1.84). Go Ahead Eagles produced 2.23 xG against 1.60 projected (+0.63).

Goals

32' Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson FC Groningen · 0.03 xG chance 0–1
82' Søren Tengstedt Go Ahead Eagles · 0.21 xG chance 1–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Go Ahead Eagles: 29%
Draw: 25% What happened
FC Groningen: 46%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Go Ahead Eagles 1.60 2.23 +0.63

FC Groningen 2.00 0.16 -1.84

FC Groningen produced 1.84 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Go Ahead Eagles FC Groningen

Shots: 25; 4
On target: 6; 2
Inside the box: 18; 2
xG per shot: 0.09; 0.04
Open play xG: 2.06; 0.16
Set-piece xG: 0.27; 0.00
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.34 for Go Ahead Eagles.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

29 shots · 2.49 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Go Ahead Eagles
FC Groningen
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Go Ahead Eagles

1.52 xG created 2.44 xGA

L 0.32 created, 4.44 conceded against NEC Nijmegen
W 2.43 created, 1.51 conceded against Willem II Tilburg
D 1.77 created, 2.83 conceded against Feyenoord
W 1.01 created, 0.99 conceded against ADO Den Haag
L 1.82 created, 2.39 conceded against AZ Alkmaar
D 1.79 created, 2.47 conceded against FC Utrecht

FC Groningen

1.57 xG created 2.12 xGA

L 0.16 created, 1.83 conceded against AFC Ajax
W 1.55 created, 2.27 conceded against FC Utrecht
W 3.20 created, 1.01 conceded against ADO Den Haag
L 1.09 created, 4.42 conceded against PSV Eindhoven
L 1.92 created, 0.87 conceded against Fortuna Sittard
D 1.48 created, 2.30 conceded against FC Twente

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Go Ahead Eagles: 0 won · 2 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

5 opportunities flagged3 won2 lost

Lost
Lost
Won
Won
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Go Ahead Eagles against FC Groningen before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
FC Groningen to win	2.70	+24.8%	Lost
FC Groningen 2+ goals	1.83	+13.3%	Lost
Go Ahead Eagles at most 1 goal	2.10	+6.8%	Won
FC Groningen to score	1.18	+4.8%	Won
Both teams to score	1.40	+3.8%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Go Ahead Eagles	28.9%	41.7%	−12.9 pp	3.46
Draw	24.9%	23.5%	+1.4 pp	4.02
FC Groningen	46.2%	34.8%	+11.5 pp	2.16

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Go Ahead Eagles to score	82.3%	82.8%	−0.5 pp	1.21
Go Ahead Eagles not to score	17.7%	17.2%	+0.5 pp	5.66
FC Groningen to score	88.7%	79.2%	+9.5 pp	1.13
FC Groningen not to score	11.3%	20.8%	−9.5 pp	8.82
Both teams to score	74.1%	66.3%	+7.9 pp	1.35
Both teams not to score	25.9%	33.7%	−7.9 pp	3.87
Go Ahead Eagles 2+ goals	49.1%	55.7%	−6.6 pp	2.03
Go Ahead Eagles at most 1 goal	50.9%	44.3%	+6.6 pp	1.97
FC Groningen 2+ goals	61.8%	50.0%	+11.8 pp	1.62
FC Groningen at most 1 goal	38.2%	50.0%	−11.8 pp	2.62
Over 1.5 goals	90.6%	86.4%	+4.2 pp	1.10
Under 1.5 goals	9.4%	13.6%	−4.2 pp	10.69
Over 2.5 goals	72.2%	69.4%	+2.7 pp	1.39
Under 2.5 goals	27.8%	30.6%	−2.7 pp	3.59

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Go Ahead Eagles sample: 20 matches
FC Groningen sample: 20 matches
Computed: 3 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 3 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.