FC Groningen 2:3 Fortuna Sittard: xG & match report · Eredivisie

Friday, 28/08/2026 at 20:00

Full time

Match report · Eredivisie

FC Groningen Home 1.92 xG · 23 shots

Fortuna Sittard Away 0.87 xG · 9 shots

23 The result went against the chances

FC Groningen were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 58%. Fortuna Sittard won 3–2. The biggest difference was Fortuna Sittard's attack: 0.87 xG against 1.22 projected (−0.35).

Goals

12' Mohamed Ihattaren Fortuna Sittard · 0.17 xG chance 0–1
20' David van der Werff FC Groningen · 0.19 xG chance 1–1
28' Lequincio Zeefuik Fortuna Sittard · 0.29 xG chance 1–2
72' Anthony Descotte Fortuna Sittard · 0.07 xG chance 1–3
87' Justin Hubner (o.g.) FC Groningen · 0.10 xG chance 2–3

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

FC Groningen: 58%
Draw: 24%
Fortuna Sittard: 19% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

FC Groningen 2.12 1.92 -0.20

Fortuna Sittard 1.22 0.87 -0.35

Fortuna Sittard produced 0.35 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

FC Groningen Fortuna Sittard

Shots: 23; 9
On target: 3; 5
Inside the box: 17; 6
xG per shot: 0.07; 0.10
Open play xG: 1.10; 0.85
Set-piece xG: 0.47; 0.01
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.57 for FC Groningen and 0.88 for Fortuna Sittard.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

32 shots · 2.43 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

FC Groningen
Fortuna Sittard
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

FC Groningen

1.46 xG created 1.88 xGA

W 1.56 created, 1.08 conceded against NEC Nijmegen
W 1.17 created, 0.64 conceded against Heracles Almelo
L 0.16 created, 1.83 conceded against AFC Ajax
W 1.55 created, 2.27 conceded against FC Utrecht
W 3.20 created, 1.01 conceded against ADO Den Haag
L 1.09 created, 4.42 conceded against PSV Eindhoven

Fortuna Sittard

0.91 xG created 2.67 xGA

L 0.90 created, 2.03 conceded against SC Heerenveen
L 0.77 created, 2.50 conceded against Feyenoord
L 0.48 created, 2.09 conceded against FC Utrecht
D 0.98 created, 2.56 conceded against PSV Eindhoven
W 1.91 created, 2.51 conceded against SC Cambuur
L 0.44 created, 4.35 conceded against AZ Alkmaar

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

FC Groningen: 1 won · 0 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

6 opportunities flagged5 won1 lost

Lost
Won
Won
Won
Won
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on FC Groningen against Fortuna Sittard before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Draw	4.75	+13.1%	Lost
Fortuna Sittard to win	6.00	+12.1%	Won
Both teams to score	1.53	+3.3%	Won
Fortuna Sittard to score	1.40	+2.9%	Won
Over 2.5 goals	1.50	+0.7%	Won
Over 1.5 goals	1.14	+0.7%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FC Groningen	57.5%	64.2%	−6.7 pp	1.74
Draw	23.8%	20.0%	+3.8 pp	4.20
Fortuna Sittard	18.7%	15.8%	+2.8 pp	5.35

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FC Groningen to score	90.0%	89.4%	+0.6 pp	1.11
FC Groningen not to score	10.0%	10.6%	−0.6 pp	9.97
Fortuna Sittard to score	73.5%	66.3%	+7.3 pp	1.36
Fortuna Sittard not to score	26.5%	33.7%	−7.3 pp	3.78
Both teams to score	67.4%	60.8%	+6.6 pp	1.48
Both teams not to score	32.6%	39.2%	−6.6 pp	3.07
FC Groningen 2+ goals	64.9%	66.3%	−1.4 pp	1.54
FC Groningen at most 1 goal	35.1%	33.7%	+1.4 pp	2.85
Fortuna Sittard 2+ goals	35.2%	33.7%	+1.5 pp	2.84
Fortuna Sittard at most 1 goal	64.8%	66.3%	−1.5 pp	1.54
Over 1.5 goals	88.1%	82.8%	+5.3 pp	1.13
Under 1.5 goals	11.9%	17.2%	−5.3 pp	8.42
Over 2.5 goals	67.1%	62.5%	+4.6 pp	1.49
Under 2.5 goals	32.9%	37.5%	−4.6 pp	3.04

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
FC Groningen sample: 20 matches
Fortuna Sittard sample: 20 matches
Computed: 9 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 9 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.