xgEdge

Expected goals

Heracles Almelo expected goals (xG) 2025/2026

Eredivisie · after 34 matches · updated 4 Oct

Heracles Almelo's attacking and defensive expected goals in Eredivisie 2025/2026, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

Heracles Almelo xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
1.14 xG per match
#17/18
Attack (xG per match) across Eredivisie, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 PSV Eindhoven 2.09
#2 Feyenoord 1.95
#3 FC Twente 1.90
#4 AZ Alkmaar 1.84
#5 NEC Nijmegen 1.83
#6 FC Groningen 1.67
#7 SC Heerenveen 1.66
#8 AFC Ajax 1.58
#9 SC Telstar 1.50
#10 FC Utrecht 1.47
#11 Sparta Rotterdam 1.33
#12 Excelsior 1.32
#13 Go Ahead Eagles 1.26
#14 Fortuna Sittard 1.21
#15 NAC Breda 1.19
#16 PEC Zwolle 1.18
#17 Heracles Almelo 1.14
#18 FC Volendam 1.06
League avg
1.51
Total
38.92 34 matches
Defence
1.97 xGA per match
#18/18
Defence (xGA per match) across Eredivisie, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 FC Twente 1.12
#2 Feyenoord 1.13
#3 PSV Eindhoven 1.17
#4 AZ Alkmaar 1.28
#5 AFC Ajax 1.29
#6 FC Utrecht 1.32
#7 FC Groningen 1.37
#8 NEC Nijmegen 1.42
#9 SC Heerenveen 1.47
#10 Sparta Rotterdam 1.50
#11 NAC Breda 1.52
#12 FC Volendam 1.70
#13 PEC Zwolle 1.75
#14 Excelsior 1.75
#15 Fortuna Sittard 1.77
#16 SC Telstar 1.77
#17 Go Ahead Eagles 1.89
#18 Heracles Almelo 1.97
League avg
1.51
Total
66.91 34 matches
xG difference
-0.82 xGD per match
#18/18
xG difference (xGD per match) across Eredivisie, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 PSV Eindhoven +0.92
#2 Feyenoord +0.82
#3 FC Twente +0.78
#4 AZ Alkmaar +0.56
#5 NEC Nijmegen +0.41
#6 FC Groningen +0.30
#7 AFC Ajax +0.29
#8 SC Heerenveen +0.18
#9 FC Utrecht +0.16
#10 Sparta Rotterdam -0.17
#11 SC Telstar -0.27
#12 NAC Breda -0.33
#13 Excelsior -0.43
#14 Fortuna Sittard -0.56
#15 PEC Zwolle -0.57
#16 Go Ahead Eagles -0.63
#17 FC Volendam -0.64
#18 Heracles Almelo -0.82
League avg
0.00
Total
-27.99 34 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
0.88 xPts per match
#18/18
Expected points (xPts per match) across Eredivisie, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 PSV Eindhoven 1.97
#2 FC Twente 1.87
#3 Feyenoord 1.86
#4 AZ Alkmaar 1.74
#5 NEC Nijmegen 1.61
#6 FC Groningen 1.57
#7 FC Utrecht 1.53
#8 SC Heerenveen 1.53
#9 AFC Ajax 1.52
#10 Sparta Rotterdam 1.30
#11 SC Telstar 1.22
#12 NAC Breda 1.18
#13 Excelsior 1.08
#14 Go Ahead Eagles 1.08
#15 Fortuna Sittard 1.03
#16 PEC Zwolle 1.02
#17 FC Volendam 0.97
#18 Heracles Almelo 0.88
League avg
1.39
Total
29.77 vs 19 actual pts

What the xG says

Heracles Almelo's underlying numbers are among the weakest in Eredivisie. They rank #18 for xG difference at -0.82 per match, from low shot volume at about average chance quality. Their 35 goals are 3.92 below 38.92 xG, while 19 points are 10.77 below 29.77 xPts.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG Includes 2.13 xG from penalties
35 38.92 -3.92 scored 3.92 fewer than xG within normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
85 66.91 +18.09 conceded 18.09 more than xGA far outside normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
19 29.77 -10.77 10.77 points below xPts outside normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

Heracles Almelo are 3.92 goals below their xG after 34 matches. The gap was widest at -4.28, against SC Telstar on Sun 10/05.

Goals
35
xG
38.92
Gap
-3.92
Sun 10/08 Sat 16/08 Sun 24/08 Fri 29/08 Sun 14/09 Sat 20/09 Sat 27/09 Sun 05/10 Sun 19/10 Sat 25/10 Sun 02/11 Sat 08/11 Sat 22/11 Sat 29/11 Sat 06/12 Sat 13/12 Sat 20/12 Sun 11/01 Sun 18/01 Sun 25/01 Sun 01/02 Sat 07/02 Sat 14/02 Sun 22/02 Sat 28/02 Fri 06/03 Sun 15/03 Fri 20/03 Sun 05/04 Sat 11/04 Sun 26/04 Sun 03/05 Sun 10/05 Sun 17/05 -5 -3 -1 +1 +3 +5 -0.82 -0.91 -1.09 -1.57 -1.94 -1.84 -0.15 +0.25 +0.06 -1.10 +3.12 +4.11 +5.49 +5.92 +4.95 +5.31 +4.83 +4.50 +3.72 +3.67 +3.66 +3.50 +2.38 +1.58 +1.36 +1.05 +0.39 -0.13 -0.46 -1.65 -2.43 -3.43 -4.28 -3.92 -0.82 -0.09 -0.18 -0.48 -0.37 +0.10 +1.69 +0.40 -0.19 -1.16 +4.22 +0.99 +1.38 +0.43 -0.97 +0.36 -0.48 -0.33 -0.78 -0.05 -0.01 -0.16 -1.12 -0.80 -0.22 -0.31 -0.66 -0.52 -0.33 -1.19 -0.78 -1.00 -0.85 +0.36 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
Heracles Almelo: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sun 10/08 FC Utrecht 0 0.82 -0.82 -0.82
Sat 16/08 NEC Nijmegen 1 1.09 -0.09 -0.91
Sun 24/08 AFC Ajax 0 0.18 -0.18 -1.09
Fri 29/08 FC Groningen 0 0.48 -0.48 -1.57
Sun 14/09 AZ Alkmaar 1 1.37 -0.37 -1.94
Sat 20/09 NAC Breda 1 0.90 +0.10 -1.84
Sat 27/09 Sparta Rotterdam 3 1.31 +1.69 -0.15
Sun 05/10 FC Twente 1 0.60 +0.40 +0.25
Sun 19/10 Feyenoord 0 0.19 -0.19 +0.06
Sat 25/10 FC Volendam 0 1.16 -1.16 -1.10
Sun 02/11 PEC Zwolle 8 3.78 +4.22 +3.12
Sat 08/11 Excelsior 2 1.01 +0.99 +4.11
Sat 22/11 Go Ahead Eagles 4 2.62 +1.38 +5.49
Sat 29/11 Fortuna Sittard 1 0.57 +0.43 +5.92
Sat 06/12 SC Telstar 1 1.97 -0.97 +4.95
Sat 13/12 PSV Eindhoven 3 2.64 +0.36 +5.31
Sat 20/12 SC Heerenveen 0 0.48 -0.48 +4.83
Sun 11/01 Sparta Rotterdam 0 0.33 -0.33 +4.50
Sun 18/01 FC Twente 0 0.78 -0.78 +3.72
Sun 25/01 Feyenoord 2 2.05 -0.05 +3.67
Sun 01/02 Fortuna Sittard 2 2.01 -0.01 +3.66
Sat 07/02 NEC Nijmegen 1 1.16 -0.16 +3.50
Sat 14/02 NAC Breda 0 1.12 -1.12 +2.38
Sun 22/02 Go Ahead Eagles 0 0.80 -0.80 +1.58
Sat 28/02 PSV Eindhoven 1 1.22 -0.22 +1.36
Fri 06/03 FC Utrecht 0 0.31 -0.31 +1.05
Sun 15/03 AZ Alkmaar 0 0.66 -0.66 +0.39
Fri 20/03 Excelsior 1 1.52 -0.52 -0.13
Sun 05/04 SC Heerenveen 1 1.33 -0.33 -0.46
Sat 11/04 AFC Ajax 0 1.19 -1.19 -1.65
Sun 26/04 FC Volendam 0 0.78 -0.78 -2.43
Sun 03/05 PEC Zwolle 0 1.00 -1.00 -3.43
Sun 10/05 SC Telstar 0 0.85 -0.85 -4.28
Sun 17/05 FC Groningen 1 0.64 +0.36 -3.92

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

Heracles Almelo xG trend

Current form -0.71 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 8 of 34 matches. The worst was against AZ Alkmaar on Sun 15/03 (-2.61).

npxG · last 6
1.00
npxGA · last 6
1.71
-3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 -1.49 Sun 10/08 -1.76 Sat 16/08 -2.53 Sun 24/08 -1.35 Fri 29/08 -2.43 Sun 14/09 -1.51 Sat 20/09 -0.19 Sat 27/09 -0.84 Sun 05/10 -2.48 Sun 19/10 -0.38 Sat 25/10 +1.81 Sun 02/11 -0.05 Sat 08/11 +1.64 Sat 22/11 -1.14 Sat 29/11 +1.26 Sat 06/12 +0.26 Sat 13/12 -0.43 Sat 20/12 -1.74 Sun 11/01 -0.96 Sun 18/01 -0.22 Sun 25/01 +1.50 Sun 01/02 -0.61 Sat 07/02 +0.74 Sat 14/02 -1.80 Sun 22/02 -1.26 Sat 28/02 -1.86 Fri 06/03 -2.61 Sun 15/03 +0.46 Fri 20/03 -1.41 Sun 05/04 -0.73 Sat 11/04 -0.13 Sun 26/04 +0.38 Sun 03/05 -1.86 Sun 10/05 -0.53 Sun 17/05 -0.71 season avg
Heracles Almelo: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sun 10/08 FC Utrecht 0.88 2.37 -1.49 -1.49
Sat 16/08 NEC Nijmegen 1.33 3.09 -1.76 -1.63
Sun 24/08 AFC Ajax 0.17 2.70 -2.53 -1.93
Fri 29/08 FC Groningen 0.46 1.81 -1.35 -1.78
Sun 14/09 AZ Alkmaar 0.76 3.19 -2.43 -1.91
Sat 20/09 NAC Breda 1.09 2.60 -1.51 -1.85
Sat 27/09 Sparta Rotterdam 1.33 1.52 -0.19 -1.61
Sun 05/10 FC Twente 0.51 1.35 -0.84 -1.51
Sun 19/10 Feyenoord 0.19 2.67 -2.48 -1.62
Sat 25/10 FC Volendam 1.16 1.54 -0.38 -1.50
Sun 02/11 PEC Zwolle 3.00 1.19 +1.81 -1.20
Sat 08/11 Excelsior 1.01 1.06 -0.05 -1.10
Sat 22/11 Go Ahead Eagles 2.62 0.98 +1.64 -0.89
Sat 29/11 Fortuna Sittard 0.57 1.71 -1.14 -0.91
Sat 06/12 SC Telstar 1.97 0.71 +1.26 -0.76
Sat 13/12 PSV Eindhoven 1.90 1.64 +0.26 -0.70
Sat 20/12 SC Heerenveen 0.48 0.91 -0.43 -0.68
Sun 11/01 Sparta Rotterdam 0.36 2.10 -1.74 -0.74
Sun 18/01 FC Twente 0.78 1.74 -0.96 -0.75
Sun 25/01 Feyenoord 1.26 1.48 -0.22 -0.73
Sun 01/02 Fortuna Sittard 2.10 0.60 +1.50 -0.62
Sat 07/02 NEC Nijmegen 1.16 1.77 -0.61 -0.62
Sat 14/02 NAC Breda 1.21 0.47 +0.74 -0.56
Sun 22/02 Go Ahead Eagles 0.80 2.60 -1.80 -0.61
Sat 28/02 PSV Eindhoven 1.22 2.48 -1.26 -0.64
Fri 06/03 FC Utrecht 0.31 2.17 -1.86 -0.69
Sun 15/03 AZ Alkmaar 0.65 3.26 -2.61 -0.76
Fri 20/03 Excelsior 1.52 1.06 +0.46 -0.71
Sun 05/04 SC Heerenveen 1.52 2.93 -1.41 -0.74
Sat 11/04 AFC Ajax 1.19 1.92 -0.73 -0.74
Sun 26/04 FC Volendam 0.79 0.92 -0.13 -0.72
Sun 03/05 PEC Zwolle 1.00 0.62 +0.38 -0.68
Sun 10/05 SC Telstar 0.85 2.71 -1.86 -0.72
Sun 17/05 FC Groningen 0.64 1.17 -0.53 -0.71

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 1.08 npxG and 1.80 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
tied number 2 hardest of 18 in Eredivisie
+0.03 xG vs league average
Over 34 league matches
Last 5
number 16 hardest of 17 in Eredivisie
−0.12 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

+0.03 xG vs league average · over 34 matches · tied number 2 hardest of 18

  1. FC Groningen Home +0.14
  2. SC Telstar Away −0.20
  3. PEC Zwolle Away −0.45
  4. FC Volendam Home −0.41
  5. AFC Ajax Home +0.32
  6. SC Heerenveen Away −0.15
  7. Excelsior Home −0.06
  8. AZ Alkmaar Away +0.29
  9. FC Utrecht Home +0.23
  10. PSV Eindhoven Home +0.52
  11. Go Ahead Eagles Away −0.60
  12. NAC Breda Home −0.06
  13. NEC Nijmegen Away +0.53
  14. Fortuna Sittard Home −0.35
  15. Feyenoord Away +0.43
  16. FC Twente Home +0.52
  17. Sparta Rotterdam Away −0.20
  18. SC Heerenveen Home −0.15
  19. PSV Eindhoven Away +0.52
  20. SC Telstar Home −0.20
  21. Fortuna Sittard Away −0.35
  22. Go Ahead Eagles Home −0.60
  23. Excelsior Away −0.06
  24. PEC Zwolle Home −0.45
  25. FC Volendam Away −0.41
  26. Feyenoord Home +0.43
  27. FC Twente Away +0.52
  28. Sparta Rotterdam Home −0.20
  29. NAC Breda Away −0.06
  30. AZ Alkmaar Home +0.29
  31. FC Groningen Away +0.14
  32. AFC Ajax Away +0.32
  33. NEC Nijmegen Home +0.53
  34. FC Utrecht Away +0.23

Last 5

−0.12 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · number 16 hardest of 17

  1. FC Groningen Home +0.14
  2. SC Telstar Away −0.20
  3. PEC Zwolle Away −0.45
  4. FC Volendam Home −0.41
  5. AFC Ajax Home +0.32

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

Heracles Almelo shots and chance quality

Low volume, average quality. Heracles Almelo take 11.0 shots a match (league 14.1) at 0.10 npxG a shot (league 0.10), #16 in Eredivisie for volume and #14 for quality. 66% of their shots come from inside the box (league 65%).

Attack

Shot volume
11.0 shots per match
#16/18
Shot volume (shots per match) across Eredivisie, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 FC Twente 17.8
#2 PSV Eindhoven 17.3
#3 NEC Nijmegen 17.0
#4 Feyenoord 16.9
#5 AZ Alkmaar 15.8
#6 FC Groningen 15.5
#7 FC Utrecht 15.4
#8 SC Heerenveen 14.9
#9 AFC Ajax 14.9
#10 NAC Breda 14.1
#11 Sparta Rotterdam 13.0
#12 SC Telstar 12.8
#13 Fortuna Sittard 12.7
#14 Excelsior 12.5
#15 Go Ahead Eagles 11.5
#16 Heracles Almelo 11.0
#17 FC Volendam 11.0
#18 PEC Zwolle 9.7
League avg
14.1
Total
375 shots from 34 matches
Chance quality
0.10 npxG per shot
#14/18
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Eredivisie, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 PEC Zwolle 0.12
#2 PSV Eindhoven 0.12
#3 SC Telstar 0.12
#4 AFC Ajax 0.11
#5 Feyenoord 0.11
#6 Go Ahead Eagles 0.11
#7 SC Heerenveen 0.11
#8 AZ Alkmaar 0.11
#9 FC Groningen 0.10
#10 FC Utrecht 0.10
#11 NEC Nijmegen 0.10
#12 FC Twente 0.10
#13 Excelsior 0.10
#14 Heracles Almelo 0.10
#15 Sparta Rotterdam 0.10
#16 FC Volendam 0.09
#17 Fortuna Sittard 0.09
#18 NAC Breda 0.08
League avg
0.10
Total
36.79 npxG from 375 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
16.7 shots per match
#15/18
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Eredivisie, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Feyenoord 10.8
#2 FC Twente 10.8
#3 NEC Nijmegen 11.2
#4 FC Groningen 11.6
#5 PSV Eindhoven 11.7
#6 AZ Alkmaar 12.3
#7 NAC Breda 12.8
#8 AFC Ajax 12.9
#9 FC Utrecht 13.0
#10 SC Heerenveen 14.0
#11 Excelsior 14.7
#12 Fortuna Sittard 15.1
=13 SC Telstar 16.1
=13 Sparta Rotterdam 16.1
#15 Heracles Almelo 16.7
#16 PEC Zwolle 17.3
#17 FC Volendam 17.9
#18 Go Ahead Eagles 19.3
League avg
14.1
Total
569 shots allowed from 34 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.11 npxGA per shot
#13/18
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Eredivisie, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 Sparta Rotterdam 0.09
#2 FC Volendam 0.09
#3 PSV Eindhoven 0.10
#4 Go Ahead Eagles 0.10
#5 FC Twente 0.10
#6 AZ Alkmaar 0.10
#7 PEC Zwolle 0.10
#8 Feyenoord 0.10
#9 AFC Ajax 0.10
#10 SC Heerenveen 0.11
#11 FC Utrecht 0.11
#12 SC Telstar 0.11
#13 Heracles Almelo 0.11
#14 Excelsior 0.11
#15 NAC Breda 0.12
#16 FC Groningen 0.12
#17 Fortuna Sittard 0.12
#18 NEC Nijmegen 0.12
League avg
0.10
Total
61.04 npxGA from 569 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

66% inside the box

League avg 65%

From 249 of 375 shots over 34 matches

Shots allowed, location

67% allowed inside the box

League avg 65%

From 382 of 569 shots allowed over 34 matches

How the shot figures are made →

Heracles Almelo home and away xG

Heracles Almelo per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 17 17
xG / match 1.32 0.97
xGA / match 1.74 2.19
xGD / match -0.43 -1.22
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 1.11 0.64

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every Heracles Almelo match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

Last 5 at home

Matches
5
xG / match
0.89
xGA / match
1.52
xGD / match
-0.64
Points
2 of 15
  1. Sun 17/05 FC Groningen H xG 0.64 xGA 1.17 xGD -0.53
  2. Sun 26/04 FC Volendam H xG 0.78 xGA 1.30 xGD -0.52
  3. Sat 11/04 AFC Ajax H xG 1.19 xGA 1.92 xGD -0.73
  4. Fri 20/03 Excelsior H Best underlying xG 1.52 xGA 1.06 xGD +0.46
  5. Fri 06/03 FC Utrecht H Weakest underlying xG 0.31 xGA 2.17 xGD -1.86

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.00. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

Heracles Almelo in Eredivisie

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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