Sunday, 16/08/2026 at 21:00
Full timeHNK Gorica 1:2 HNK Hajduk Split
HNK Hajduk Split were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 41%. They won 2–1. The biggest difference was HNK Hajduk Split's attack: 1.20 xG against 1.49 projected (−0.29).
Goals
- 3' Michele Šego HNK Hajduk Split · 0.20 xG chance 0–1
- 78' Bruno Bogojević (pen.) HNK Gorica · 0.82 xG chance 1–1
- 87' Marko Livaja HNK Hajduk Split · 0.13 xG chance 1–2
The model against the result
- HNK Gorica
- 29%
- Draw
- 30%
- HNK Hajduk Split
- 41% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
HNK Hajduk Split produced 0.29 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 8
- 16
- On target
- 2
- 5
- Inside the box
- 7
- 11
- xG per shot
- 0.16
- 0.07
- Open play xG
- 0.35
- 0.96
- Set-piece xG
- 0.13
- 0.22
- Penalties
- 1
- 0
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.48 for HNK Gorica and 1.20 for HNK Hajduk Split.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
24 shots · 2.48 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- HNK Gorica
- HNK Hajduk Split
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
0.75 xG created 1.33 xGA
- L 1.12 created, 0.41 conceded against GNK Dinamo Zagreb
- L 0.33 created, 1.07 conceded against NK Slaven Belupo
- W 0.55 created, 1.29 conceded against NK Osijek
- L 0.14 created, 1.40 conceded against HNK Rijeka
- L 0.82 created, 2.70 conceded against NK Osijek
- L 1.54 created, 1.13 conceded against NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.51 xG created 1.55 xGA
- D 0.85 created, 1.44 conceded against HNK Rijeka
- W 1.73 created, 1.98 conceded against NK Varaždin
- L 0.26 created, 2.53 conceded against GNK Dinamo Zagreb
- D 3.39 created, 1.50 conceded against NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
- L 1.16 created, 0.90 conceded against NK Varaždin
- D 1.67 created, 0.94 conceded against NK Istra 1961
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- HNK Gorica sample
- 20 matches
- HNK Hajduk Split sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 3 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.