xgEdge

Expected goals

HNK Rijeka expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

HNL · after 7 matches · updated 1 Oct

HNK Rijeka's attacking and defensive expected goals in HNL 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

HNK Rijeka xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
1.65 xG per match
#2/10
Attack (xG per match) across HNL, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 GNK Dinamo Zagreb 2.24
#2 HNK Rijeka 1.65
#3 HNK Hajduk Split 1.52
#4 NK Osijek 1.51
#5 NK Istra 1961 1.44
#6 NK Varaždin 1.41
#7 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1.05
#8 NK Slaven Belupo 0.93
#9 HNK Gorica 0.87
#10 NK Rudeš 0.60
League avg
1.31
Total
11.53 7 matches
Defence
0.77 xGA per match
#2/10
Defence (xGA per match) across HNL, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 HNK Hajduk Split 0.74
#2 HNK Rijeka 0.77
#3 NK Varaždin 0.88
#4 GNK Dinamo Zagreb 0.91
#5 NK Istra 1961 1.26
#6 NK Osijek 1.28
#7 HNK Gorica 1.37
#8 NK Slaven Belupo 1.68
#9 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1.84
#10 NK Rudeš 2.20
League avg
1.31
Total
5.39 7 matches
xG difference
+0.88 xGD per match
#2/10
xG difference (xGD per match) across HNL, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 GNK Dinamo Zagreb +1.32
#2 HNK Rijeka +0.88
#3 HNK Hajduk Split +0.78
#4 NK Varaždin +0.53
#5 NK Osijek +0.23
#6 NK Istra 1961 +0.19
#7 HNK Gorica -0.50
#8 NK Slaven Belupo -0.76
#9 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb -0.79
#10 NK Rudeš -1.61
League avg
0.00
Total
+6.14 7 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
1.96 xPts per match
#2/10
Expected points (xPts per match) across HNL, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 GNK Dinamo Zagreb 2.23
#2 HNK Rijeka 1.96
#3 HNK Hajduk Split 1.93
#4 NK Varaždin 1.80
#5 NK Osijek 1.53
#6 NK Istra 1961 1.45
#7 HNK Gorica 0.95
#8 NK Slaven Belupo 0.93
#9 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 0.82
#10 NK Rudeš 0.45
League avg
1.39
Total
13.74 vs 14 actual pts

Early-season figures: after 7 matches, per-match rates can move quickly.

What the xG says

HNK Rijeka's underlying numbers are among the best in HNL. They rank #2 for xG difference at +0.88 per match, driven by elite shot volume at about average chance quality. Their 13 goals are 1.47 above 11.53 xG, while 14 points are 0.26 above 13.74 xPts. After only 7 matches, those gaps should still be read cautiously.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG
13 11.53 +1.47 scored 1.47 more than xG within normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
7 5.39 +1.61 conceded 1.61 more than xGA within normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
14 13.74 +0.26 0.26 points above xPts within normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

HNK Rijeka are 1.47 goals above their xG after 7 matches.

Goals
13
xG
11.53
Gap
+1.47
Sun 02/08 Sun 16/08 Sun 23/08 Mon 31/08 Sat 05/09 Sat 12/09 Sun 20/09 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 -0.33 -1.05 +0.00 -0.40 +0.94 -0.07 +1.47 -0.33 -0.72 +1.05 -0.40 +1.34 -1.01 +1.54 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
HNK Rijeka: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sun 02/08 NK Rudeš 2 2.33 -0.33 -0.33
Sun 16/08 NK Varaždin 0 0.72 -0.72 -1.05
Sun 23/08 NK Istra 1961 3 1.95 +1.05 +0.00
Mon 31/08 HNK Gorica 0 0.40 -0.40 -0.40
Sat 05/09 NK Osijek 4 2.66 +1.34 +0.94
Sat 12/09 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1 2.01 -1.01 -0.07
Sun 20/09 HNK Hajduk Split 3 1.46 +1.54 +1.47

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

HNK Rijeka xG trend

Current form +0.82 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 6 of 7 matches. The only negative was against NK Varaždin on Sun 16/08 (-0.24).

npxG · last 6
1.47
npxGA · last 6
0.65
-1 0 +1 +2 +3 +2.06 Sun 02/08 -0.24 Sun 16/08 +0.88 Sun 23/08 +0.24 Mon 31/08 +2.23 Sat 05/09 +1.62 Sat 12/09 +0.18 Sun 20/09 +1.00 season avg
HNK Rijeka: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sun 02/08 NK Rudeš 2.34 0.28 +2.06 +2.06
Sun 16/08 NK Varaždin 0.72 0.96 -0.24 +0.91
Sun 23/08 NK Istra 1961 1.65 0.77 +0.88 +0.90
Mon 31/08 HNK Gorica 0.40 0.16 +0.24 +0.73
Sat 05/09 NK Osijek 2.58 0.35 +2.23 +1.03
Sat 12/09 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 2.01 0.39 +1.62 +1.13
Sun 20/09 HNK Hajduk Split 1.46 1.28 +0.18 +1.00

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 1.59 npxG and 0.60 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
tied number 8 hardest of 10 in HNL
−0.11 xG vs league average
Over 7 league matches
Last 5
tied number 5 hardest of 10 in HNL
−0.07 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

−0.11 xG vs league average · over 7 matches · tied number 8 hardest of 10

  1. HNK Hajduk Split Home +0.38
  2. NK Lokomotiva Zagreb Away −0.39
  3. NK Osijek Home +0.18
  4. HNK Gorica Away −0.34
  5. NK Istra 1961 Home −0.20
  6. NK Varaždin Away +0.13
  7. NK Rudeš Home −0.51

Last 5

−0.07 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · tied number 5 hardest of 10

  1. HNK Hajduk Split Home +0.38
  2. NK Lokomotiva Zagreb Away −0.39
  3. NK Osijek Home +0.18
  4. HNK Gorica Away −0.34
  5. NK Istra 1961 Home −0.20

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

HNK Rijeka shots and chance quality

High volume, average quality. HNK Rijeka take 17.6 shots a match (league 13.7) at 0.09 npxG a shot (league 0.09), #3 in HNL for volume and #4 for quality. 70% of their shots come from inside the box (league 64%), and set pieces produce 22% of their npxG (league 21%).

Attack

Shot volume
17.6 shots per match
#3/10
Shot volume (shots per match) across HNL, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 GNK Dinamo Zagreb 19.6
#2 NK Osijek 17.6
#3 HNK Rijeka 17.6
#4 HNK Hajduk Split 15.5
#5 NK Varaždin 14.1
#6 NK Istra 1961 13.0
#7 NK Slaven Belupo 11.5
=8 HNK Gorica 9.9
=8 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 9.9
#10 NK Rudeš 9.1
League avg
13.7
Total
123 shots from 7 matches
Chance quality
0.09 npxG per shot
#4/10
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across HNL, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 GNK Dinamo Zagreb 0.10
#2 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 0.10
#3 NK Istra 1961 0.10
#4 HNK Rijeka 0.09
#5 NK Varaždin 0.09
#6 HNK Hajduk Split 0.09
#7 NK Osijek 0.08
#8 HNK Gorica 0.07
#9 NK Slaven Belupo 0.07
#10 NK Rudeš 0.06
League avg
0.09
Total
11.16 npxG from 123 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
7.9 shots per match
#2/10
Shots allowed (shots per match) across HNL, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 HNK Hajduk Split 7.5
#2 HNK Rijeka 7.9
#3 GNK Dinamo Zagreb 9.1
#4 NK Varaždin 12.1
#5 NK Osijek 12.6
#6 NK Istra 1961 14.6
#7 NK Slaven Belupo 16.5
#8 HNK Gorica 16.6
#9 NK Rudeš 17.5
#10 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 20.8
League avg
13.7
Total
55 shots allowed from 7 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.08 npxGA per shot
#2/10
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across HNL, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 NK Varaždin 0.06
#2 HNK Rijeka 0.08
#3 NK Istra 1961 0.08
#4 HNK Gorica 0.08
#5 HNK Hajduk Split 0.09
#6 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 0.09
#7 NK Osijek 0.09
#8 NK Rudeš 0.10
#9 NK Slaven Belupo 0.10
#10 GNK Dinamo Zagreb 0.10
League avg
0.09
Total
4.19 npxGA from 55 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

70% inside the box

League avg 64%

From 86 of 123 shots over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Shots allowed, location

56% allowed inside the box

League avg 64%

From 31 of 55 shots allowed over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG comes from

78% open play · 22% set pieces

League avg 21% set pieces

From 2.4 of 11.0 npxG over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG allowed comes from

83% open play · 17% set pieces

League avg 21% set pieces

From 0.7 of 4.2 npxG allowed over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

How the shot figures are made →

HNK Rijeka home and away xG

HNK Rijeka per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 4 3
xG / match 2.10 1.04
xGA / match 0.78 0.76
xGD / match +1.33 +0.28
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 2.25 1.58

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every HNK Rijeka match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

This season

Matches
7
xG / match
1.65
xGA / match
0.77
xGD / match
+0.88
Points
14 of 21
  1. Sun 20/09 HNK Hajduk Split H xG 1.46 xGA 1.28 xGD +0.18
  2. Sat 12/09 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb A xG 2.01 xGA 0.39 xGD +1.62
  3. Sat 05/09 NK Osijek H Best underlying xG 2.66 xGA 0.35 xGD +2.31
  4. Mon 31/08 HNK Gorica A xG 0.40 xGA 0.15 xGD +0.25
  5. Sun 23/08 NK Istra 1961 H xG 1.95 xGA 1.19 xGD +0.76
  6. Sun 16/08 NK Varaždin A Weakest underlying xG 0.72 xGA 1.75 P xGD -1.03
  7. Sun 02/08 NK Rudeš H xG 2.33 xGA 0.28 xGD +2.05

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.00. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

HNK Rijeka in HNL

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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