NK Varaždin 2:0 HNK Rijeka: xG & match report · HNL

Sunday, 16/08/2026 at 18:30

Full time

Match report · HNL

NK Varaždin Home 1.75 xG · 8 shots

HNK Rijeka Away 0.72 xG · 15 shots

20 The scoreline reflected the chances

A draw was the model's likeliest result before kick-off at 36%. NK Varaždin won 2–0. The biggest difference was NK Varaždin's attack: 1.75 xG against 0.95 projected (+0.80). HNK Rijeka produced 0.72 xG against 0.98 projected (−0.26).

Goals

20' Ivan Mamut NK Varaždin · 0.40 xG chance 1–0
31' Ivan Mamut (pen.) NK Varaždin · 0.82 xG chance 2–0

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

NK Varaždin: 31% What happened
Draw: 36%
HNK Rijeka: 33%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

NK Varaždin 0.95 1.75 +0.80

HNK Rijeka 0.98 0.72 -0.26

NK Varaždin produced 0.80 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

NK Varaždin HNK Rijeka

Shots: 8; 15
On target: 4; 3
Inside the box: 6; 8
xG per shot: 0.23; 0.05
Open play xG: 0.70; 0.31
Set-piece xG: 0.29; 0.43
Penalties: 1; 0

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.96 for NK Varaždin and 0.72 for HNK Rijeka.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

23 shots · 2.55 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

NK Varaždin
HNK Rijeka
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

NK Varaždin

1.82 xG created 0.87 xGA

L 1.98 created, 1.73 conceded against HNK Hajduk Split
D 0.75 created, 0.29 conceded against NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
W 1.74 created, 0.70 conceded against HNK Vukovar 1991
W 3.05 created, 0.40 conceded against NK Istra 1961
W 0.90 created, 1.16 conceded against HNK Hajduk Split
W 2.49 created, 0.95 conceded against NK Slaven Belupo

HNK Rijeka

1.64 xG created 0.51 xGA

D 1.44 created, 0.85 conceded against HNK Hajduk Split
W 2.13 created, 0.33 conceded against NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
W 2.01 created, 0.27 conceded against HNK Vukovar 1991
D 0.55 created, 1.17 conceded against NK Istra 1961
W 1.40 created, 0.14 conceded against HNK Gorica
W 2.33 created, 0.28 conceded against NK Rudeš

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

NK Varaždin: 3 won · 0 drawn · 1 lost

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
NK Varaždin sample: 20 matches
HNK Rijeka sample: 20 matches
Computed: 1 hour before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.