Saturday, 29/08/2026 at 17:00
Kicked offNK Lokomotiva Zagreb – HNK Hajduk Split
Model not yet run Best odds updated 29 August, 09:03
What the model expects
- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
- 23%
- Draw
- 28%
- HNK Hajduk Split
- 49%
| NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | Draw | HNK Hajduk Split | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 4.38 | 3.54 | 2.04 |
- Total goals
- 2.80
- Over 2.5 goals
- 55%
- Both teams to score
- 61%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 4 outcomes.
-
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
- Model
- 22.8%
- Market, margin removed
- 63.2%
- Probability gap
- −40.4 pp
- Edge
- −67.6%
- Fair odds
- 4.38
- Market odds
- 1.42 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 4.60
- Bookmaker margin
- 11.4%
-
Draw
- Model
- 28.2%
- Market, margin removed
- 22.4%
- Probability gap
- +5.8 pp
- Edge
- +13.0%
- Fair odds
- 3.54
- Market odds
- 4.00 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.72
- Bookmaker margin
- 11.4%
-
HNK Hajduk Split
- Model
- 48.9%
- Market, margin removed
- 14.4%
- Probability gap
- +34.6 pp
- Edge
- +205.7%
- Fair odds
- 2.04
- Market odds
- 6.25 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 2.15
- Bookmaker margin
- 11.4%
Outcomes with value
HNK Hajduk Split to win
Measured model skill on this market: +7.20%.
Draw
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Both teams to score
No measured model skill on this market (-0.43%).
Under 2.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Best opportunity
HNK Hajduk Split to win
Model 48.9% vs. bookmaker 14.4%, margin removed.
Match result
Measured model skill on this market: +7.20%.
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Both teams to score
No measured model skill on this market (-0.43%).
Goals by team
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model leans HNK Hajduk Split
49% HNK Hajduk Split to win
- Attack
- 3rd vs 10th
- HNK Hajduk Split attack v NK Lokomotiva Zagreb defence
- Defence
- 2nd vs 7th
- HNK Hajduk Split defence v NK Lokomotiva Zagreb attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.28 vs -0.80
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.13 – 1.67
- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb v HNK Hajduk Split
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | HNK Hajduk Split |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.05 · 7th | (better) 1.52 · 3rd |
| xGA / match | 1.84 · 9th | (better) 0.74 · 1st |
| xGD / match | -0.79 · 9th | (better) +0.78 · 3rd |
| xPts / match | 0.82 · 9th | (better) 1.93 · 3rd |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.80 | (better) +0.28 |
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb sample
- 20 matches
- HNK Hajduk Split sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · HNK Hajduk Split
- 4 matches
- Odds updated
- 37 days ago · over a day old
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.