NK Rudeš 2:2 NK Slaven Belupo: xG & match report · HNL

Friday, 18/09/2026 at 20:00

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Match report · HNL

NK Rudeš Home 0.48 xG · 9 shots

NK Slaven Belupo Away 1.99 xG · 19 shots

22 NK Slaven Belupo had the better chances, but it finished level

NK Rudeš were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 39%. It finished 2–2. The biggest difference was NK Slaven Belupo's attack: 1.99 xG against 1.07 projected (+0.92). NK Rudeš produced 0.48 xG against 1.28 projected (−0.80).

Goals

54' Saad El Haddad NK Rudeš · 0.12 xG chance 1–0
75' Ilija Nestorovski (pen.) NK Slaven Belupo · 0.82 xG chance 1–1
79' Ilija Nestorovski NK Slaven Belupo · 0.30 xG chance 1–2
90' Marko Zebić NK Rudeš · 0.08 xG chance 2–2

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

NK Rudeš: 39%
Draw: 33% What happened
NK Slaven Belupo: 28%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 7 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

NK Rudeš 1.28 0.48 -0.80

NK Slaven Belupo 1.07 1.99 +0.92

NK Slaven Belupo produced 0.92 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

NK Rudeš NK Slaven Belupo

Shots: 9; 19
On target: 3; 3
Inside the box: 7; 15
xG per shot: 0.05; 0.11
Open play xG: 0.25; 0.74
Set-piece xG: 0.21; 0.45
Penalties: 0; 1

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.45 for NK Rudeš and 1.20 for NK Slaven Belupo.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

28 shots · 2.47 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

NK Rudeš
NK Slaven Belupo
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

NK Rudeš

0.67 xG created 2.22 xGA

L 0.60 created, 2.76 conceded against NK Osijek
L 0.39 created, 3.38 conceded against GNK Dinamo Zagreb
W 1.69 created, 1.03 conceded against NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
L 0.36 created, 1.93 conceded against NK Varaždin
L 0.12 created, 2.32 conceded against HNK Hajduk Split
L 0.84 created, 1.87 conceded against NK Istra 1961

NK Slaven Belupo

0.82 xG created 1.72 xGA

L 0.95 created, 2.49 conceded against NK Varaždin
L 0.30 created, 2.85 conceded against NK Istra 1961
W 1.07 created, 0.93 conceded against HNK Gorica
L 0.88 created, 1.43 conceded against NK Osijek
W 1.37 created, 1.95 conceded against NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
L 0.36 created, 0.68 conceded against HNK Hajduk Split

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

9 opportunities flagged3 won6 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Won
Won
Lost
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on NK Rudeš against NK Slaven Belupo before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
NK Slaven Belupo not to score	4.33	+35.3%	Lost
NK Rudeš to win	3.40	+33.1%	Lost
NK Slaven Belupo at most 1 goal	1.80	+27.4%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	2.00	+14.9%	Lost
Draw	3.40	+10.5%	Won
NK Rudeš to score	1.40	+4.9%	Won
Both teams not to score	2.25	+4.7%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	3.75	+3.2%	Lost
NK Rudeš 2+ goals	2.75	+3.0%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
NK Rudeš	39.2%	26.4%	+12.7 pp	2.55
Draw	32.5%	26.4%	+6.1 pp	3.08
NK Slaven Belupo	28.3%	47.1%	−18.8 pp	3.53

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
NK Rudeš to score	74.9%	66.3%	+8.7 pp	1.33
NK Rudeš not to score	25.1%	33.7%	−8.7 pp	3.99
NK Slaven Belupo to score	68.8%	78.3%	−9.5 pp	1.45
NK Slaven Belupo not to score	31.2%	21.7%	+9.5 pp	3.20
Both teams to score	53.5%	58.9%	−5.4 pp	1.87
Both teams not to score	46.5%	41.1%	+5.4 pp	2.15
NK Rudeš 2+ goals	37.4%	33.7%	+3.7 pp	2.67
NK Rudeš at most 1 goal	62.6%	66.3%	−3.7 pp	1.60
NK Slaven Belupo 2+ goals	29.2%	48.5%	−19.3 pp	3.42
NK Slaven Belupo at most 1 goal	70.8%	51.5%	+19.3 pp	1.41
Over 1.5 goals	72.5%	75.0%	−2.5 pp	1.38
Under 1.5 goals	27.5%	25.0%	+2.5 pp	3.63
Over 2.5 goals	42.6%	52.6%	−10.1 pp	2.35
Under 2.5 goals	57.4%	47.4%	+10.1 pp	1.74

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
NK Rudeš sample: 7 matches
NK Slaven Belupo sample: 20 matches
Computed: 1 minute before kick-off
Prices taken: 11 hours before kick-off

Warnings

NK Rudeš has only 7 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.