NK Varaždin 2:0 NK Rudeš: xG & match report · HNL

Saturday, 29/08/2026 at 21:00

Full time

Match report · HNL

NK Varaždin Home 1.93 xG · 11 shots

NK Rudeš Away 0.36 xG · 9 shots

20 The scoreline reflected the chances

NK Varaždin were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 59%. They won 2–0. The biggest difference was NK Rudeš's attack: 0.36 xG against 0.79 projected (−0.43).

Goals

72' Aleksa Latković NK Varaždin · 0.50 xG chance 1–0
84' Ivan Canjuga NK Varaždin · 0.18 xG chance 2–0

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

NK Varaždin: 59% What happened
Draw: 27%
NK Rudeš: 14%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 4 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

NK Varaždin 1.71 1.93 +0.22

NK Rudeš 0.79 0.36 -0.43

NK Rudeš produced 0.43 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

NK Varaždin NK Rudeš

Shots: 11; 9
On target: 3; 3
Inside the box: 8; 3
xG per shot: 0.18; 0.04
Open play xG: 1.00; 0.28
Set-piece xG: 0.12; 0.06
Penalties: 1; 0

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.14 for NK Varaždin and 0.36 for NK Rudeš.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

20 shots · 2.28 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

NK Varaždin
NK Rudeš
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

NK Varaždin

1.72 xG created 1.01 xGA

W 1.74 created, 0.70 conceded against HNK Vukovar 1991
W 3.05 created, 0.40 conceded against NK Istra 1961
W 0.90 created, 1.16 conceded against HNK Hajduk Split
W 2.49 created, 0.95 conceded against NK Slaven Belupo
W 1.75 created, 0.72 conceded against HNK Rijeka
L 0.42 created, 2.10 conceded against GNK Dinamo Zagreb

NK Rudeš

0.74 xG created 2.38 xGA

L 0.28 created, 2.33 conceded against HNK Rijeka
L 0.60 created, 2.76 conceded against NK Osijek
L 0.39 created, 3.38 conceded against GNK Dinamo Zagreb
W 1.69 created, 1.03 conceded against NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

9 opportunities flagged1 won8 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Won
Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on NK Varaždin against NK Rudeš before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
NK Varaždin not to score	9.00	+40.3%	Lost
NK Varaždin at most 1 goal	2.75	+29.7%	Lost
Draw	4.75	+29.0%	Lost
NK Rudeš to win	9.00	+25.2%	Lost
NK Rudeš 2+ goals	6.50	+16.2%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	2.15	+14.7%	Won
NK Rudeš to score	1.91	+9.9%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	4.33	+6.5%	Lost
Both teams to score	2.10	+5.4%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
NK Varaždin	58.9%	70.7%	−11.8 pp	1.70
Draw	27.2%	19.2%	+8.0 pp	3.68
NK Rudeš	13.9%	10.1%	+3.8 pp	7.19

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
NK Varaždin to score	84.4%	89.4%	−5.0 pp	1.18
NK Varaždin not to score	15.6%	10.6%	+5.0 pp	6.42
NK Rudeš to score	57.5%	48.5%	+9.0 pp	1.74
NK Rudeš not to score	42.5%	51.5%	−9.0 pp	2.36
Both teams to score	50.2%	44.3%	+6.0 pp	1.99
Both teams not to score	49.8%	55.7%	−6.0 pp	2.01
NK Varaždin 2+ goals	52.9%	66.3%	−13.4 pp	1.89
NK Varaždin at most 1 goal	47.1%	33.7%	+13.4 pp	2.12
NK Rudeš 2+ goals	17.9%	14.6%	+3.3 pp	5.59
NK Rudeš at most 1 goal	82.1%	85.4%	−3.3 pp	1.22
Over 1.5 goals	75.4%	78.3%	−2.9 pp	1.33
Under 1.5 goals	24.6%	21.7%	+2.9 pp	4.07
Over 2.5 goals	46.6%	56.3%	−9.7 pp	2.14
Under 2.5 goals	53.4%	43.7%	+9.7 pp	1.87

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
NK Varaždin sample: 20 matches
NK Rudeš sample: 4 matches
Computed: 11 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 11 hours before kick-off

Warnings

NK Rudeš has only 4 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.