NK Istra 1961 3:2 NK Rudeš: xG & match report · HNL

Sunday, 13/09/2026 at 17:00

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Match report · HNL

NK Istra 1961 Home 1.87 xG · 11 shots

NK Rudeš Away 0.84 xG · 15 shots

32 The scoreline reflected the chances

NK Istra 1961 were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 50%. They won 3–2. The biggest difference was NK Istra 1961's attack: 1.87 xG against 1.52 projected (+0.35).

Goals

11' Emil Frederiksen (pen.) NK Istra 1961 · 0.82 xG chance 1–0
28' Emil Frederiksen NK Istra 1961 · 0.11 xG chance 2–0
58' Emil Frederiksen NK Istra 1961 · 0.20 xG chance 3–0
85' Cherno Saho NK Rudeš · 0.12 xG chance 3–1
89' Lenny Ilečić NK Rudeš · 0.26 xG chance 3–2

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

NK Istra 1961: 50% What happened
Draw: 30%
NK Rudeš: 20%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 6 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

NK Istra 1961 1.52 1.87 +0.35

NK Rudeš 0.94 0.84 -0.10

NK Istra 1961 produced 0.35 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

NK Istra 1961 NK Rudeš

Shots: 11; 15
On target: 4; 5
Inside the box: 9; 7
xG per shot: 0.17; 0.05
Open play xG: 1.03; 0.68
Set-piece xG: 0.03; 0.14
Penalties: 1; 0

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.08 for NK Istra 1961 and 0.84 for NK Rudeš.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

26 shots · 2.70 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

NK Istra 1961
NK Rudeš
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

NK Istra 1961

1.41 xG created 1.43 xGA

L 2.35 created, 1.16 conceded against NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
D 0.94 created, 1.67 conceded against HNK Hajduk Split
W 2.85 created, 0.30 conceded against NK Slaven Belupo
L 1.19 created, 1.95 conceded against HNK Rijeka
D 0.84 created, 2.06 conceded against GNK Dinamo Zagreb
D 0.30 created, 1.45 conceded against NK Varaždin

NK Rudeš

0.57 xG created 2.29 xGA

L 0.28 created, 2.33 conceded against HNK Rijeka
L 0.60 created, 2.76 conceded against NK Osijek
L 0.39 created, 3.38 conceded against GNK Dinamo Zagreb
W 1.69 created, 1.03 conceded against NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
L 0.36 created, 1.93 conceded against NK Varaždin
L 0.12 created, 2.32 conceded against HNK Hajduk Split

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

6 opportunities flagged0 won6 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on NK Istra 1961 against NK Rudeš before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
NK Istra 1961 not to score	8.00	+54.2%	Lost
NK Istra 1961 at most 1 goal	2.63	+41.2%	Lost
Draw	4.20	+26.7%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	2.25	+22.7%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	4.50	+14.0%	Lost
NK Rudeš to win	5.50	+11.7%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
NK Istra 1961	49.5%	62.3%	−12.7 pp	2.02
Draw	30.2%	21.4%	+8.8 pp	3.31
NK Rudeš	20.3%	16.3%	+4.0 pp	4.92

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
NK Istra 1961 to score	80.7%	88.1%	−7.4 pp	1.24
NK Istra 1961 not to score	19.3%	11.9%	+7.4 pp	5.19
NK Rudeš to score	63.9%	60.8%	+3.2 pp	1.56
NK Rudeš not to score	36.1%	39.2%	−3.2 pp	2.77
Both teams to score	53.4%	53.7%	−0.3 pp	1.87
Both teams not to score	46.6%	46.3%	+0.3 pp	2.15
NK Istra 1961 2+ goals	46.2%	64.5%	−18.3 pp	2.16
NK Istra 1961 at most 1 goal	53.8%	35.5%	+18.3 pp	1.86
NK Rudeš 2+ goals	23.8%	26.9%	−3.0 pp	4.19
NK Rudeš at most 1 goal	76.2%	73.1%	+3.0 pp	1.31
Over 1.5 goals	74.7%	79.4%	−4.7 pp	1.34
Under 1.5 goals	25.3%	20.6%	+4.7 pp	3.95
Over 2.5 goals	45.5%	58.9%	−13.4 pp	2.20
Under 2.5 goals	54.5%	41.1%	+13.4 pp	1.83

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
NK Istra 1961 sample: 20 matches
NK Rudeš sample: 6 matches
Computed: 7 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 7 hours before kick-off

Warnings

NK Rudeš has only 6 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.