Friday, 23/10/2026 at 18:00
19d 16h to kick-offClub Brugge KV – Sint-Truidense VV
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Club Brugge KV
- 55%
- Draw
- 23%
- Sint-Truidense VV
- 21%
| Club Brugge KV | Draw | Sint-Truidense VV | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.80 | 4.28 | 4.72 |
- Total goals
- 3.60
- Over 2.5 goals
- 72%
- Both teams to score
- 72%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Club Brugge KV
55% Club Brugge KV to win
- Attack
- 1st vs 10th
- Club Brugge KV attack v Sint-Truidense VV defence
- Defence
- 8th vs 4th
- Club Brugge KV defence v Sint-Truidense VV attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.62 vs 0.00
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 2.21 – 1.39
- Club Brugge KV v Sint-Truidense VV
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Club Brugge KV | Sint-Truidense VV |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 2.16 · 1st | 1.91 · 4th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.20 · 6th | 1.84 · 14th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.96 · 2nd | +0.07 · 8th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.90 · 3rd | 1.44 · 8th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.62 | +0.00 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 28% of the model's distribution.
- Club Brugge KV clean sheet
- 22%
- Club Brugge KV 2+ goals
- 67%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 28%
- Both teams to score: no
- 28%
Most likely scorelines
- 2:1
- 10.4%
- 1:1
- 9.8%
- 3:1
- 7.8%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Club Brugge KV sample
- 20 matches
- Sint-Truidense VV sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Club Brugge KV
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · Sint-Truidense VV
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.