Sunday, 20/09/2026 at 16:00
Full timeSint-Truidense VV 0:2 KVC Westerlo
Sint-Truidense VV were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 49%. KVC Westerlo won 2–0. The biggest difference was KVC Westerlo's attack: 1.87 xG against 1.25 projected (+0.62).
Goals
- 36' Norman Bassette KVC Westerlo · 0.41 xG chance 0–1
- 46' Cisse Sandra KVC Westerlo · 0.05 xG chance 0–2
The model against the result
- Sint-Truidense VV
- 49%
- Draw
- 27%
- KVC Westerlo
- 24% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
KVC Westerlo produced 0.62 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 17
- 18
- On target
- 3
- 8
- Inside the box
- 14
- 13
- xG per shot
- 0.13
- 0.11
- Open play xG
- 1.77
- 1.72
- Set-piece xG
- 0.40
- 0.19
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.19 for Sint-Truidense VV and 1.87 for KVC Westerlo.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
35 shots · 4.08 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Sint-Truidense VV
- KVC Westerlo
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.89 xG created 1.84 xGA
- D 1.98 created, 1.49 conceded against Lommel SK
- D 2.04 created, 4.15 conceded against Cercle Brugge
- W 3.38 created, 0.77 conceded against Royal Antwerp FC
- L 0.85 created, 2.49 conceded against Royale Union Saint-Gilloise
- W 2.40 created, 0.44 conceded against RAAL La Louvière
- L 0.72 created, 1.69 conceded against SK Beveren
1.38 xG created 1.78 xGA
- L 0.76 created, 1.79 conceded against Royale Union Saint-Gilloise
- L 0.85 created, 4.24 conceded against KRC Genk
- L 0.66 created, 1.34 conceded against Lommel SK
- D 2.16 created, 1.51 conceded against SV Zulte Waregem
- W 2.41 created, 0.58 conceded against KV Mechelen
- W 1.41 created, 1.22 conceded against Standard Liège
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
5 opportunities flagged4 won1 lost
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sint-Truidense VV at most 1 goal | 2.63 | +16.8% | Won |
| Sint-Truidense VV not to score | 8.00 | +14.4% | Won |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.70 | +6.4% | Won |
| Draw | 3.90 | +5.6% | Lost |
| KVC Westerlo to win | 4.33 | +3.4% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sint-Truidense VV | 49.1% | 55.4% | −6.4 pp | 2.04 |
| Draw | 27.1% | 23.5% | +3.6 pp | 3.69 |
| KVC Westerlo | 23.9% | 21.1% | +2.8 pp | 4.19 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sint-Truidense VV to score | 85.7% | 88.1% | −2.4 pp | 1.17 |
| Sint-Truidense VV not to score | 14.3% | 11.9% | +2.4 pp | 7.00 |
| KVC Westerlo to score | 74.3% | 73.1% | +1.1 pp | 1.35 |
| KVC Westerlo not to score | 25.7% | 26.9% | −1.1 pp | 3.89 |
| Both teams to score | 65.1% | 64.5% | +0.6 pp | 1.53 |
| Both teams not to score | 34.9% | 35.5% | −0.6 pp | 2.87 |
| Sint-Truidense VV 2+ goals | 55.5% | 64.5% | −9.0 pp | 1.80 |
| Sint-Truidense VV at most 1 goal | 44.5% | 35.5% | +9.0 pp | 2.25 |
| KVC Westerlo 2+ goals | 36.2% | 39.2% | −3.0 pp | 2.76 |
| KVC Westerlo at most 1 goal | 63.8% | 60.8% | +3.0 pp | 1.57 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.6% | 84.2% | +0.4 pp | 1.18 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 15.4% | 15.8% | −0.4 pp | 6.50 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.6% | 65.2% | −4.6 pp | 1.65 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39.4% | 34.8% | +4.6 pp | 2.54 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Sint-Truidense VV sample
- 20 matches
- KVC Westerlo sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 day before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 day before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.