Standard Liège 1:0 Royal Antwerp FC: xG & match report · Jupiler Pro League

Saturday, 05/09/2026 at 20:45

Full time

Match report · Jupiler Pro League

Standard Liège Home 3.42 xG · 20 shots

Royal Antwerp FC Away 0.83 xG · 14 shots

10 The scoreline reflected the chances

Standard Liège were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 38%. They won 1–0. The biggest difference was Standard Liège's attack: 3.42 xG against 1.48 projected (+1.94). Royal Antwerp FC produced 0.83 xG against 1.37 projected (−0.54).

Goals

77' Dennis Eckert Ayensa (pen.) Standard Liège · 0.82 xG chance 1–0

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Standard Liège: 38% What happened
Draw: 29%
Royal Antwerp FC: 33%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Standard Liège 1.48 3.42 +1.94

Royal Antwerp FC 1.37 0.83 -0.54

Standard Liège produced 1.94 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Standard Liège Royal Antwerp FC

Shots: 20; 14
On target: 8; 4
Inside the box: 19; 11
xG per shot: 0.18; 0.06
Open play xG: 1.63; 0.69
Set-piece xG: 1.24; 0.17
Penalties: 1; 0

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.80 for Standard Liège and 0.83 for Royal Antwerp FC.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

34 shots · 4.55 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Standard Liège
Royal Antwerp FC
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Standard Liège

1.65 xG created 1.74 xGA

W 2.57 created, 1.34 conceded against KVC Westerlo
L 0.58 created, 1.91 conceded against RC Sporting Charleroi
D 2.60 created, 1.47 conceded against Cercle Brugge
D 1.64 created, 2.75 conceded against KV Mechelen
W 1.15 created, 1.07 conceded against RAAL La Louvière
W 1.36 created, 1.89 conceded against Oud-Heverlee Leuven

Royal Antwerp FC

1.47 xG created 1.58 xGA

D 0.71 created, 2.63 conceded against KRC Genk
W 2.10 created, 0.43 conceded against KVC Westerlo
W 2.20 created, 0.96 conceded against SK Beveren
W 1.19 created, 0.77 conceded against KV Kortrijk
D 1.86 created, 1.30 conceded against KRC Genk
L 0.77 created, 3.38 conceded against Sint-Truidense VV

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Standard Liège: 2 won · 1 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

2 opportunities flagged0 won2 lost

Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Standard Liège against Royal Antwerp FC before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Royal Antwerp FC to win	3.47	+13.4%	Lost
Draw	3.67	+7.7%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Standard Liège	38.0%	45.9%	−8.0 pp	2.63
Draw	29.3%	26.3%	+3.1 pp	3.41
Royal Antwerp FC	32.7%	27.8%	+4.9 pp	3.06

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Over 2.5 goals	56.0%	54.2%	+1.8 pp	1.78
Under 2.5 goals	44.0%	45.8%	−1.8 pp	2.27

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Standard Liège sample: 20 matches
Royal Antwerp FC sample: 20 matches
Computed: 5 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 5 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.