Sunday, 08/11/2026 at 20:00
34d 18h to kick-offElche – Real Betis
Model updated 5 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Elche
- 36%
- Draw
- 30%
- Real Betis
- 34%
| Elche | Draw | Real Betis | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.78 | 3.31 | 2.96 |
- Total goals
- 2.72
- Over 2.5 goals
- 53%
- Both teams to score
- 61%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model can't separate them
36% Elche to win
- Attack
- 14th vs 17th
- Elche attack v Real Betis defence
- Defence
- 13th vs 5th
- Elche defence v Real Betis attack
- Recent xG form
- -1.05 vs -0.37
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.38 – 1.34
- Elche v Real Betis
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Elche | Real Betis |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.24 · 13th | (better) 1.52 · 6th |
| xGA / match | 2.01 · 18th | (better) 1.86 · 17th |
| xGD / match | -0.77 · 18th | (better) -0.34 · 12th |
| xPts / match | 1.14 · 13th | (better) 1.20 · 11th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -1.05 | (better) -0.37 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 34% of the model's distribution.
- Elche clean sheet
- 23%
- Elche 2+ goals
- 41%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 47%
- Both teams to score: no
- 39%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 15.2%
- 2:1
- 9.8%
- 1:2
- 9.4%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Elche sample
- 20 matches
- Real Betis sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Elche
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Real Betis
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Monday, 05/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.