Deportivo La Coruña 1:1 Real Betis: xG & match report · La Liga

Sunday, 20/09/2026 at 18:30

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Match report · La Liga

Deportivo La Coruña Home 2.09 xG · 23 shots

Real Betis Away 0.80 xG · 11 shots

11 Deportivo La Coruña had the better chances, but it finished level

Real Betis were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 41%. It finished 1–1. The biggest difference was Deportivo La Coruña's attack: 2.09 xG against 1.20 projected (+0.89). Real Betis produced 0.80 xG against 1.45 projected (−0.65).

Goals

43' Cucho Hernández Real Betis · 0.06 xG chance 0–1
87' Diego Villares Deportivo La Coruña · 0.24 xG chance 1–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Deportivo La Coruña: 29%
Draw: 30% What happened
Real Betis: 41%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 6 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Deportivo La Coruña 1.20 2.09 +0.89

Real Betis 1.45 0.80 -0.65

Deportivo La Coruña produced 0.89 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Deportivo La Coruña Real Betis

Shots: 23; 11
On target: 7; 3
Inside the box: 18; 7
xG per shot: 0.09; 0.10
Open play xG: 1.41; 0.76
Set-piece xG: 0.77; 0.32
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.24 for Deportivo La Coruña and 1.07 for Real Betis.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

34 shots · 3.26 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Deportivo La Coruña
Real Betis
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Deportivo La Coruña

0.78 xG created 1.20 xGA

D 0.34 created, 1.23 conceded against Elche
D 1.12 created, 1.95 conceded against Málaga
W 1.42 created, 1.40 conceded against Valencia
W 0.79 created, 1.14 conceded against Villarreal
D 0.87 created, 0.78 conceded against Getafe
L 0.14 created, 0.73 conceded against Sevilla

Real Betis

1.64 xG created 1.82 xGA

W 1.24 created, 1.36 conceded against Real Sociedad
W 0.71 created, 1.12 conceded against Valencia
L 1.92 created, 2.76 conceded against Levante UD
W 0.93 created, 3.46 conceded against Real Madrid
W 3.52 created, 1.89 conceded against Villarreal
W 1.53 created, 0.32 conceded against Getafe

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

3 opportunities flagged3 won0 lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Deportivo La Coruña against Real Betis before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Draw	3.80	+15.4%	Won
Real Betis at most 1 goal	1.80	+1.3%	Won
Both teams to score	1.70	+0.9%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Deportivo La Coruña	28.6%	27.8%	+0.8 pp	3.49
Draw	30.4%	24.9%	+5.5 pp	3.29
Real Betis	41.0%	47.3%	−6.3 pp	2.44

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Deportivo La Coruña to score	72.7%	68.7%	+4.0 pp	1.37
Deportivo La Coruña not to score	27.3%	31.3%	−4.0 pp	3.67
Real Betis to score	79.1%	78.3%	+0.8 pp	1.26
Real Betis not to score	20.9%	21.7%	−0.8 pp	4.79
Both teams to score	59.3%	54.7%	+4.7 pp	1.69
Both teams not to score	40.7%	45.3%	−4.7 pp	2.46
Deportivo La Coruña 2+ goals	34.3%	33.7%	+0.5 pp	2.92
Deportivo La Coruña at most 1 goal	65.7%	66.3%	−0.5 pp	1.52
Real Betis 2+ goals	43.7%	48.5%	−4.8 pp	2.29
Real Betis at most 1 goal	56.3%	51.5%	+4.8 pp	1.78
Over 1.5 goals	78.4%	76.2%	+2.2 pp	1.28
Under 1.5 goals	21.6%	23.8%	−2.2 pp	4.63
Over 2.5 goals	50.7%	52.6%	−1.9 pp	1.97
Under 2.5 goals	49.3%	47.4%	+1.9 pp	2.03

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Deportivo La Coruña sample: 6 matches
Real Betis sample: 20 matches
Computed: 1 day before kick-off
Prices taken: 1 day before kick-off

Warnings

Deportivo La Coruña has only 6 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.