Saturday, 12/09/2026 at 18:30
Full timeAthletic Club 1:1 Elche
Athletic Club were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 51%. It finished 1–1. The biggest difference was Athletic Club's attack: 2.39 xG against 1.47 projected (+0.92).
Goals
- 50' Facundo Buonanotte (pen.) Elche · 0.82 xG chance 0–1
- 79' Iñaki Williams Athletic Club · 0.64 xG chance 1–1
The model against the result
- Athletic Club
- 51%
- Draw
- 31% What happened
- Elche
- 18%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Athletic Club produced 0.92 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 19
- 3
- On target
- 3
- 1
- Inside the box
- 14
- 1
- xG per shot
- 0.13
- 0.29
- Open play xG
- 2.19
- 0.01
- Set-piece xG
- 0.26
- 0.05
- Penalties
- 0
- 1
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.42 for Athletic Club and 0.05 for Elche.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
22 shots · 3.33 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Athletic Club
- Elche
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.52 xG created 1.55 xGA
1.05 xG created 1.29 xGA
- W 0.66 created, 0.11 conceded against Getafe
- D 0.18 created, 0.58 conceded against Girona FC
- D 1.23 created, 0.34 conceded against Deportivo La Coruña
- L 0.70 created, 4.38 conceded against Barcelona
- L 1.03 created, 1.72 conceded against Racing de Santander
- L 2.47 created, 0.58 conceded against Real Sociedad
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
6 opportunities flagged3 won3 lost
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
- Won
- Won
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elche to win | 8.00 | +47.3% | Lost |
| Draw | 4.75 | +45.0% | Won |
| Athletic Club not to score | 7.00 | +42.1% | Lost |
| Athletic Club at most 1 goal | 2.50 | +38.5% | Won |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.20 | +29.0% | Won |
| Under 1.5 goals | 4.33 | +24.2% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club | 51.1% | 68.0% | −17.0 pp | 1.96 |
| Draw | 30.5% | 20.1% | +10.5 pp | 3.28 |
| Elche | 18.4% | 11.9% | +6.5 pp | 5.43 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club to score | 79.7% | 86.4% | −6.7 pp | 1.25 |
| Athletic Club not to score | 20.3% | 13.6% | +6.7 pp | 4.93 |
| Elche to score | 59.5% | 55.7% | +3.7 pp | 1.68 |
| Elche not to score | 40.5% | 44.3% | −3.7 pp | 2.47 |
| Both teams to score | 49.2% | 48.0% | +1.2 pp | 2.03 |
| Both teams not to score | 50.8% | 52.0% | −1.2 pp | 1.97 |
| Athletic Club 2+ goals | 44.6% | 62.5% | −17.9 pp | 2.24 |
| Athletic Club at most 1 goal | 55.4% | 37.5% | +17.9 pp | 1.81 |
| Elche 2+ goals | 20.0% | 20.8% | −0.8 pp | 5.01 |
| Elche at most 1 goal | 80.0% | 79.2% | +0.8 pp | 1.25 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.3% | 78.0% | −6.7 pp | 1.40 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 28.7% | 22.0% | +6.7 pp | 3.49 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.3% | 56.9% | −15.5 pp | 2.42 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 58.7% | 43.1% | +15.5 pp | 1.70 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
Show Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Athletic Club sample
- 20 matches
- Elche sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 3 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 3 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.