xgEdge

Expected goals

FC Arouca expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

Liga Portugal · after 7 matches · updated 1 Oct

FC Arouca's attacking and defensive expected goals in Liga Portugal 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

FC Arouca xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
1.24 xG per match
#10/18
Attack (xG per match) across Liga Portugal, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 Benfica 2.32
#2 FC Porto 2.26
#3 Sporting 2.01
#4 Vitória SC 1.77
#5 FC Alverca 1.40
#6 Santa Clara 1.35
#7 Gil Vicente 1.31
#8 Académico Viseu FC 1.30
#9 Sporting Braga 1.25
#10 FC Arouca 1.24
#11 CF Estrela Amadora 1.23
#12 CD Nacional 1.15
#13 Famalicão 0.99
#14 Marítimo 0.94
#15 Casa Pia 0.89
#16 Estoril Praia 0.85
#17 Moreirense 0.68
#18 Rio Ave 0.54
League avg
1.31
Total
8.69 7 matches
Defence
1.38 xGA per match
#10/18
Defence (xGA per match) across Liga Portugal, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 Sporting Braga 0.65
#2 Benfica 0.65
#3 Santa Clara 0.69
#4 Vitória SC 0.77
#5 Sporting 0.79
#6 Gil Vicente 0.88
#7 FC Porto 0.98
#8 Famalicão 1.25
#9 Marítimo 1.32
#10 FC Arouca 1.38
#11 Estoril Praia 1.62
#12 CF Estrela Amadora 1.63
#13 Académico Viseu FC 1.71
#14 Moreirense 1.73
#15 FC Alverca 1.74
#16 Casa Pia 1.77
#17 CD Nacional 1.87
#18 Rio Ave 1.92
League avg
1.31
Total
9.68 7 matches
xG difference
-0.14 xGD per match
#8/18
xG difference (xGD per match) across Liga Portugal, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 Benfica +1.66
#2 FC Porto +1.28
#3 Sporting +1.22
#4 Vitória SC +0.99
#5 Santa Clara +0.67
#6 Sporting Braga +0.60
#7 Gil Vicente +0.43
#8 FC Arouca -0.14
#9 Famalicão -0.26
#10 FC Alverca -0.34
#11 Marítimo -0.38
#12 CF Estrela Amadora -0.40
#13 Académico Viseu FC -0.41
#14 CD Nacional -0.72
#15 Estoril Praia -0.76
#16 Casa Pia -0.87
#17 Moreirense -1.06
#18 Rio Ave -1.38
League avg
0.00
Total
-0.99 7 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
1.37 xPts per match
#8/18
Expected points (xPts per match) across Liga Portugal, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 Benfica 2.40
#2 FC Porto 2.22
#3 Sporting 2.17
#4 Vitória SC 1.96
#5 Santa Clara 1.93
#6 Sporting Braga 1.83
#7 Gil Vicente 1.76
#8 FC Arouca 1.37
#9 Famalicão 1.18
#10 CF Estrela Amadora 1.13
#11 Académico Viseu FC 1.08
#12 Marítimo 1.07
#13 CD Nacional 1.06
#14 FC Alverca 1.06
#15 Casa Pia 0.91
#16 Estoril Praia 0.82
#17 Moreirense 0.68
#18 Rio Ave 0.46
League avg
1.39
Total
9.57 vs 11 actual pts

Early-season figures: after 7 matches, per-match rates can move quickly.

What the xG says

FC Arouca's underlying numbers sit close to the Liga Portugal average. They rank #8 for xG difference at -0.14 per match, built on high chance quality rather than low shot volume. Their 10 goals are 1.31 above 8.69 xG, while 11 points are 1.43 above 9.57 xPts. After only 7 matches, those gaps should still be read cautiously.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG Includes 0.56 xG from penalties
10 8.69 +1.31 scored 1.31 more than xG within normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
7 9.68 -2.68 conceded 2.68 fewer than xGA within normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
11 9.57 +1.43 1.43 points above xPts within normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

FC Arouca are 1.31 goals above their xG after 7 matches. The gap was widest at +2.37, against Moreirense on Sun 16/08.

Goals
10
xG
8.69
Gap
+1.31
Sat 08/08 Sun 16/08 Sun 23/08 Sat 29/08 Mon 07/09 Sun 13/09 Sat 19/09 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 +0.51 +2.37 +1.83 +2.18 +1.11 +1.39 +1.31 +0.51 +1.86 -0.54 +0.35 -1.07 +0.28 -0.08 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
FC Arouca: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sat 08/08 Vitória SC 1 0.49 +0.51 +0.51
Sun 16/08 Moreirense 4 2.14 +1.86 +2.37
Sun 23/08 FC Porto 0 0.54 -0.54 +1.83
Sat 29/08 Marítimo 2 1.65 +0.35 +2.18
Mon 07/09 Estoril Praia 0 1.07 -1.07 +1.11
Sun 13/09 Santa Clara 1 0.72 +0.28 +1.39
Sat 19/09 Sporting 2 2.08 -0.08 +1.31

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

FC Arouca xG trend

Current form +0.03 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 3 of 7 matches. The worst was against FC Porto on Sun 23/08 (-2.41).

npxG · last 6
1.27
npxGA · last 6
1.24
-3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 -1.73 Sat 08/08 +1.80 Sun 16/08 -2.41 Sun 23/08 +0.98 Sat 29/08 +0.25 Mon 07/09 -0.43 Sun 13/09 +0.00 Sat 19/09 -0.22 season avg
FC Arouca: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sat 08/08 Vitória SC 0.49 2.22 -1.73 -1.73
Sun 16/08 Moreirense 2.29 0.49 +1.80 +0.04
Sun 23/08 FC Porto 0.59 3.00 -2.41 -0.78
Sat 29/08 Marítimo 1.65 0.67 +0.98 -0.34
Mon 07/09 Estoril Praia 1.09 0.84 +0.25 -0.22
Sun 13/09 Santa Clara 0.73 1.16 -0.43 -0.26
Sat 19/09 Sporting 1.29 1.29 +0.00 -0.22

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 1.16 npxG and 1.38 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
number 6 hardest of 18 in Liga Portugal
+0.07 xG vs league average
Over 7 league matches
Last 5
number 3 hardest of 18 in Liga Portugal
+0.13 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

+0.07 xG vs league average · over 7 matches · number 6 hardest of 18

  1. Sporting Away +0.55
  2. Santa Clara Home +0.22
  3. Estoril Praia Away −0.36
  4. Marítimo Home −0.23
  5. FC Porto Away +0.47
  6. Moreirense Home −0.54
  7. Vitória SC Away +0.40

Last 5

+0.13 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · number 3 hardest of 18

  1. Sporting Away +0.55
  2. Santa Clara Home +0.22
  3. Estoril Praia Away −0.36
  4. Marítimo Home −0.23
  5. FC Porto Away +0.47

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

FC Arouca shots and chance quality

Low volume, high quality. FC Arouca take 10.9 shots a match (league 12.2) at 0.11 npxG a shot (league 0.10), #11 in Liga Portugal for volume and #6 for quality. 58% of their shots come from inside the box (league 63%), and set pieces produce 12% of their npxG (league 22%).

Attack

Shot volume
10.9 shots per match
#11/18
Shot volume (shots per match) across Liga Portugal, best first
Rank Club shots per match
=1 Benfica 19.1
=1 Vitória SC 19.1
#3 FC Porto 16.0
#4 Gil Vicente 14.0
#5 Sporting 13.4
=6 CF Estrela Amadora 13.1
=6 Santa Clara 13.1
#8 Estoril Praia 12.7
#9 Sporting Braga 12.5
#10 FC Alverca 11.9
#11 FC Arouca 10.9
#12 CD Nacional 10.7
#13 Marítimo 10.4
#14 Casa Pia 10.3
#15 Famalicão 9.6
#16 Académico Viseu FC 9.3
#17 Moreirense 7.3
#18 Rio Ave 7.1
League avg
12.2
Total
76 shots from 7 matches
Chance quality
0.11 npxG per shot
#6/18
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Liga Portugal, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 Académico Viseu FC 0.15
#2 Sporting 0.14
#3 FC Porto 0.12
#4 Benfica 0.11
#5 FC Alverca 0.11
#6 FC Arouca 0.11
#7 CD Nacional 0.10
#8 Sporting Braga 0.10
#9 Santa Clara 0.10
#10 Famalicão 0.09
#11 CF Estrela Amadora 0.09
#12 Vitória SC 0.09
#13 Marítimo 0.08
#14 Moreirense 0.08
#15 Gil Vicente 0.07
#16 Casa Pia 0.07
#17 Estoril Praia 0.06
#18 Rio Ave 0.06
League avg
0.10
Total
8.13 npxG from 76 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
14.9 shots per match
#13/18
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Liga Portugal, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Vitória SC 7.1
#2 Benfica 7.6
#3 Santa Clara 8.1
#4 Sporting 8.6
#5 Sporting Braga 8.7
#6 Gil Vicente 9.8
#7 FC Porto 10.7
#8 CF Estrela Amadora 11.6
#9 Famalicão 12.0
#10 FC Alverca 12.1
#11 Marítimo 13.4
#12 Estoril Praia 13.9
#13 FC Arouca 14.9
#14 CD Nacional 15.1
=15 Casa Pia 15.7
=15 Moreirense 15.7
#17 Rio Ave 16.9
#18 Académico Viseu FC 17.6
League avg
12.2
Total
104 shots allowed from 7 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.09 npxGA per shot
#9/18
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Liga Portugal, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 Sporting Braga 0.06
#2 Santa Clara 0.07
#3 Gil Vicente 0.08
#4 Sporting 0.08
#5 FC Porto 0.08
#6 Académico Viseu FC 0.08
#7 Benfica 0.09
#8 Marítimo 0.09
#9 FC Arouca 0.09
#10 Famalicão 0.10
#11 Casa Pia 0.10
#12 Moreirense 0.10
#13 CD Nacional 0.10
#14 Estoril Praia 0.11
#15 Rio Ave 0.11
#16 Vitória SC 0.11
#17 CF Estrela Amadora 0.12
#18 FC Alverca 0.13
League avg
0.10
Total
9.67 npxGA from 104 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

58% inside the box

League avg 63%

From 44 of 76 shots over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Shots allowed, location

66% allowed inside the box

League avg 63%

From 69 of 104 shots allowed over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG comes from

88% open play · 12% set pieces

League avg 22% set pieces

From 1.0 of 8.1 npxG over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG allowed comes from

86% open play · 14% set pieces

League avg 22% set pieces

From 1.3 of 9.8 npxG allowed over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

How the shot figures are made →

FC Arouca home and away xG

FC Arouca per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 3 4
xG / match 1.50 1.05
xGA / match 0.77 1.84
xGD / match +0.73 -0.80
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 1.89 0.97

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every FC Arouca match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

This season

Matches
7
xG / match
1.24
xGA / match
1.38
xGD / match
-0.14
Points
11 of 21
  1. Sat 19/09 Sporting A xG 2.08 P xGA 1.28 xGD +0.80
  2. Sun 13/09 Santa Clara H xG 0.72 xGA 1.16 xGD -0.44
  3. Mon 07/09 Estoril Praia A xG 1.07 xGA 0.86 xGD +0.21
  4. Sat 29/08 Marítimo H xG 1.65 xGA 0.67 xGD +0.98
  5. Sun 23/08 FC Porto A Weakest underlying xG 0.54 xGA 3.00 xGD -2.46
  6. Sun 16/08 Moreirense H Best underlying xG 2.14 xGA 0.49 xGD +1.65
  7. Sat 08/08 Vitória SC A Against the chances xG 0.49 xGA 2.22 xGD -1.73

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.00. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

FC Arouca in Liga Portugal

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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