Sunday, 11/10/2026 at 21:30
7d 18h to kick-offFC Arouca – CF Estrela Amadora
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Best odds updated 10 October, 12:00
What the model expects
- FC Arouca
- 43%
- Draw
- 31%
- CF Estrela Amadora
- 26%
| FC Arouca | Draw | CF Estrela Amadora | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.33 | 3.26 | 3.79 |
- Total goals
- 2.58
- Over 2.5 goals
- 49%
- Both teams to score
- 58%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 2 outcomes.
-
FC Arouca
- Model
- 43.0%
- Market, margin removed
- 43.0%
- Probability gap
- −0.1 pp
- Edge
- −7.6%
- Fair odds
- 2.33
- Market odds
- 2.15 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 2.44
- Bookmaker margin
- 8.1%
-
Draw
- Model
- 30.6%
- Market, margin removed
- 28.0%
- Probability gap
- +2.6 pp
- Edge
- +1.1%
- Fair odds
- 3.26
- Market odds
- 3.30 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.43
- Bookmaker margin
- 8.1%
-
CF Estrela Amadora
- Model
- 26.4%
- Market, margin removed
- 28.9%
- Probability gap
- −2.5 pp
- Edge
- −15.5%
- Fair odds
- 3.79
- Market odds
- 3.20 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.98
- Bookmaker margin
- 8.1%
Outcomes with value
Draw
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Both teams to score
No measured model skill on this market (-0.43%).
Match result
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Goals
Both teams to score
No measured model skill on this market (-0.43%).
Goals by team
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model leans FC Arouca
43% FC Arouca to win
- Attack
- 6th vs 12th
- FC Arouca attack v CF Estrela Amadora defence
- Defence
- 11th vs 8th
- FC Arouca defence v CF Estrela Amadora attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.12 vs -0.19
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.46 – 1.12
- FC Arouca v CF Estrela Amadora
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | FC Arouca | CF Estrela Amadora |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.24 · 10th | 1.23 · 11th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.38 · 10th | 1.63 · 12th |
| xGD / match | (better) -0.14 · 8th | -0.40 · 12th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.37 · 8th | 1.13 · 10th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.12 | -0.19 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- FC Arouca clean sheet
- 29%
- FC Arouca 2+ goals
- 44%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 51%
- Both teams to score: no
- 42%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 15.7%
- 2:1
- 10.7%
- 1:0
- 8.6%
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC Arouca sample
- 20 matches
- CF Estrela Amadora sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · FC Arouca
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · CF Estrela Amadora
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
- Odds updated
- 1 minute ago
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.