Friday, 04/09/2026 at 21:15
Full timeFC Porto 2:1 Moreirense
FC Porto were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 67%. They won 2–1. The biggest difference was FC Porto's attack: 2.90 xG against 1.77 projected (+1.13). Moreirense produced 0.85 xG against 0.55 projected (+0.30).
Goals
- 20' Dinis Pinto Moreirense · 0.14 xG chance 0–1
- 37' Jan Bednarek FC Porto · 0.03 xG chance 1–1
- 58' William Gomes FC Porto · 0.47 xG chance 2–1
The model against the result
- FC Porto
- 67% What happened
- Draw
- 24%
- Moreirense
- 8%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
FC Porto produced 1.13 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 23
- 7
- On target
- 9
- 2
- Inside the box
- 14
- 5
- xG per shot
- 0.13
- 0.13
- Open play xG
- 1.93
- 0.88
- Set-piece xG
- 1.03
- 0.01
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.90 for FC Porto and 0.88 for Moreirense.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
30 shots · 3.85 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- FC Porto
- Moreirense
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
2.16 xG created 0.80 xGA
- L 3.06 created, 0.75 conceded against AVS - Futebol SAD
- W 0.85 created, 0.47 conceded against Santa Clara
- W 2.59 created, 1.66 conceded against FC Alverca
- W 1.97 created, 0.58 conceded against Rio Ave
- W 3.00 created, 0.54 conceded against FC Arouca
- W 1.47 created, 0.80 conceded against Académico Viseu FC
0.65 xG created 1.76 xGA
- W 1.68 created, 2.75 conceded against CF Estrela Amadora
- L 0.29 created, 1.39 conceded against Tondela
- D 0.96 created, 2.03 conceded against AVS - Futebol SAD
- D 0.21 created, 1.50 conceded against Sporting Braga
- L 0.49 created, 2.14 conceded against FC Arouca
- W 0.28 created, 0.77 conceded against Casa Pia
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
4 opportunities flagged0 won4 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moreirense to win | 21.00 | +74.8% | Lost |
| Draw | 7.00 | +70.3% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.30 | +34.0% | Lost |
| Under 1.5 goals | 4.50 | +29.3% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto | 67.4% | 82.1% | −14.8 pp | 1.48 |
| Draw | 24.3% | 13.4% | +10.9 pp | 4.11 |
| Moreirense | 8.3% | 4.5% | +3.9 pp | 12.01 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 39.6% | 37.5% | +2.1 pp | 2.52 |
| Both teams not to score | 60.4% | 62.5% | −2.1 pp | 1.66 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.3% | 79.2% | −7.9 pp | 1.40 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 28.7% | 20.8% | +7.9 pp | 3.48 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.7% | 59.0% | −17.2 pp | 2.40 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 58.3% | 41.0% | +17.2 pp | 1.72 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC Porto sample
- 20 matches
- Moreirense sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 6 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 6 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.