Casa Pia 0:1 Moreirense: xG & match report · Liga Portugal

Sunday, 30/08/2026 at 19:00

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Match report · Liga Portugal

Casa Pia Home 0.77 xG · 14 shots

Moreirense Away 0.28 xG · 6 shots

01 The result went against the chances

Casa Pia were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 45%. Moreirense won 1–0. The biggest difference was Moreirense's attack: 0.28 xG against 0.75 projected (−0.47). Casa Pia produced 0.77 xG against 1.19 projected (−0.42).

Goals

24' Kiko Moreirense · 0.04 xG chance 0–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Casa Pia: 45%
Draw: 35%
Moreirense: 20% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Casa Pia 1.19 0.77 -0.42

Moreirense 0.75 0.28 -0.47

Moreirense produced 0.47 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Casa Pia Moreirense

Shots: 14; 6
On target: 2; 5
Inside the box: 10; 3
xG per shot: 0.05; 0.05
Open play xG: 0.27; 0.25
Set-piece xG: 0.49; 0.04
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.78 for Casa Pia and 0.28 for Moreirense.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

20 shots · 1.05 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Casa Pia
Moreirense
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Casa Pia

0.86 xG created 1.46 xGA

L 0.45 created, 1.18 conceded against Tondela
W 0.88 created, 0.94 conceded against Vitória SC
D 2.34 created, 0.61 conceded against Rio Ave
L 0.64 created, 1.28 conceded against Marítimo
L 0.12 created, 3.04 conceded against Benfica
L 0.76 created, 1.74 conceded against Gil Vicente

Moreirense

0.75 xG created 1.97 xGA

L 0.87 created, 2.02 conceded against Benfica
W 1.68 created, 2.75 conceded against CF Estrela Amadora
L 0.29 created, 1.39 conceded against Tondela
D 0.96 created, 2.03 conceded against AVS - Futebol SAD
D 0.21 created, 1.50 conceded against Sporting Braga
L 0.49 created, 2.14 conceded against FC Arouca

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Casa Pia: 0 won · 1 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

4 opportunities flagged2 won2 lost

Lost
Lost
Won
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Casa Pia against Moreirense before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Casa Pia to win	2.70	+10.2%	Lost
Draw	3.10	+7.5%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	1.53	+6.5%	Won
Under 1.5 goals	2.63	+0.1%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Casa Pia	45.0%	35.1%	+9.9 pp	2.22
Draw	34.7%	30.5%	+4.2 pp	2.88
Moreirense	20.3%	34.4%	−14.1 pp	4.92

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	42.3%	45.3%	−3.1 pp	2.37
Both teams not to score	57.7%	54.7%	+3.1 pp	1.73
Over 1.5 goals	61.9%	64.5%	−2.6 pp	1.62
Under 1.5 goals	38.1%	35.5%	+2.6 pp	2.62
Over 2.5 goals	30.6%	39.0%	−8.4 pp	3.27
Under 2.5 goals	69.4%	61.0%	+8.4 pp	1.44

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Casa Pia sample: 20 matches
Moreirense sample: 20 matches
Computed: 1 day before kick-off
Prices taken: 9 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.