Auxerre 2:1 Stade Brestois: xG & match report · Ligue 1

Sunday, 20/09/2026 at 15:00

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Match report · Ligue 1

Auxerre Home 0.96 xG · 12 shots

Stade Brestois Away 0.34 xG · 8 shots

21 The scoreline reflected the chances

Stade Brestois were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 41%. Auxerre won 2–1. The biggest difference was Stade Brestois's attack: 0.34 xG against 1.43 projected (−1.09).

Goals

23' Pathé Mboup Stade Brestois · 0.05 xG chance 0–1
47' Cameron Archer Auxerre · 0.28 xG chance 1–1
83' Raphaël Le Guen (o.g.) Auxerre · 0.10 xG chance 2–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Auxerre: 28% What happened
Draw: 31%
Stade Brestois: 41%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Auxerre 1.17 0.96 -0.21

Stade Brestois 1.43 0.34 -1.09

Stade Brestois produced 1.09 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Auxerre Stade Brestois

Shots: 12; 8
On target: 5; 2
Inside the box: 3; 3
xG per shot: 0.06; 0.03
Open play xG: 0.68; 0.09
Set-piece xG: 0.07; 0.18
Penalties: —; —

Auxerre's shots add up to 0.75 xG and Stade Brestois's to 0.27; the published figures are 0.96 and 0.34.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

20 shots · 1.02 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Auxerre
Stade Brestois
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Auxerre

1.25 xG created 2.16 xGA

W 0.84 created, 1.33 conceded against Nice
W 0.54 created, 1.72 conceded against Lille
L 1.84 created, 4.41 conceded against RC Lens
L 1.81 created, 1.55 conceded against Angers
L 0.71 created, 2.85 conceded against Olympique Lyonnais
W 1.74 created, 1.08 conceded against Nice

Stade Brestois

2.33 xG created 1.28 xGA

L 3.06 created, 2.02 conceded against RC Strasbourg
D 1.57 created, 0.68 conceded against Angers
D 2.72 created, 0.67 conceded against Le Mans
D 3.04 created, 1.14 conceded against Toulouse
W 2.37 created, 2.02 conceded against Le Havre
L 1.24 created, 1.16 conceded against Paris Saint-Germain

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Auxerre: 1 won · 0 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

3 opportunities flagged0 won3 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Auxerre against Stade Brestois before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Draw	3.50	+7.3%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	2.00	+1.4%	Lost
Stade Brestois to win	2.45	+0.5%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Auxerre	28.3%	33.4%	−5.1 pp	3.53
Draw	30.7%	27.4%	+3.2 pp	3.26
Stade Brestois	41.0%	39.2%	+1.8 pp	2.44

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	58.2%	57.7%	+0.5 pp	1.72
Both teams not to score	41.8%	42.3%	−0.5 pp	2.39
Over 1.5 goals	77.4%	76.2%	+1.2 pp	1.29
Under 1.5 goals	22.6%	23.8%	−1.2 pp	4.42
Over 2.5 goals	49.3%	52.6%	−3.4 pp	2.03
Under 2.5 goals	50.7%	47.4%	+3.4 pp	1.97

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Auxerre sample: 20 matches
Stade Brestois sample: 20 matches
Computed: 1 day before kick-off
Prices taken: 1 day before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.