Monday, 02/11/2026 at 20:45
Full timeLorient 0:2 Stade Brestois
Lorient were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 34%. Stade Brestois won 2–0. The biggest difference was Lorient's attack: 1.63 xG against 1.14 projected (+0.49).
Goals
- 69' Ludovic Ajorque Stade Brestois · 0.08 xG chance 0–1
- 90' Noah Edjouma Stade Brestois · 0.38 xG chance 0–2
The model against the result
- Lorient
- 34%
- Draw
- 33%
- Stade Brestois
- 33% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Lorient produced 0.49 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 15
- 12
- On target
- 0
- 4
- Inside the box
- 11
- 6
- xG per shot
- 0.11
- 0.10
- Open play xG
- 0.45
- 1.19
- Set-piece xG
- 0.40
- 0.00
- Penalties
- 1
- 0
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.84 for Lorient and 1.22 for Stade Brestois.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
27 shots · 2.85 xG
Hover or tap a shot, or step through them with the arrows.
- Lorient
- Stade Brestois
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.03 xG created 0.91 xGA
1.81 xG created 1.30 xGA
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
3 qualified edges flagged2 won1 lost
- Won
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lorient at most 1 goal | 1.53 | +4.4% | Won |
| Draw | 3.10 | +3.4% | Lost |
| Lorient not to score | 3.50 | +2.3% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lorient | 33.6% | 37.0% | −3.4 pp | 2.97 |
| Draw | 33.4% | 30.4% | +2.9 pp | 3.00 |
| Stade Brestois | 33.0% | 32.5% | +0.4 pp | 3.03 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lorient to score | 70.8% | 73.1% | −2.4 pp | 1.41 |
| Lorient not to score | 29.2% | 26.9% | +2.4 pp | 3.42 |
| Stade Brestois to score | 70.3% | 66.3% | +4.1 pp | 1.42 |
| Stade Brestois not to score | 29.7% | 33.7% | −4.1 pp | 3.37 |
| Both teams to score | 51.7% | 52.0% | −0.3 pp | 1.93 |
| Both teams not to score | 48.3% | 48.0% | +0.3 pp | 2.07 |
| Lorient 2+ goals | 31.9% | 39.2% | −7.3 pp | 3.14 |
| Lorient at most 1 goal | 68.1% | 60.8% | +7.3 pp | 1.47 |
| Stade Brestois 2+ goals | 31.4% | 31.3% | +0.2 pp | 3.18 |
| Stade Brestois at most 1 goal | 68.6% | 68.7% | −0.2 pp | 1.46 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.4% | 70.1% | +0.3 pp | 1.42 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 29.6% | 29.9% | −0.3 pp | 3.38 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.0% | 43.1% | −3.1 pp | 2.50 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 60.0% | 56.9% | +3.1 pp | 1.67 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
Show Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Lorient sample
- 20 matches
- Stade Brestois sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 11 minutes before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 2 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.