Saturday, 05/09/2026 at 17:15
Full timeRC Lens 0:1 Lorient
RC Lens were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 62%. Lorient won 1–0. The biggest difference was RC Lens's attack: 1.24 xG against 1.99 projected (−0.75). Lorient produced 1.60 xG against 0.92 projected (+0.68).
Goals
- 54' Mamadou Koné Lorient · 0.57 xG chance 0–1
The model against the result
- RC Lens
- 62%
- Draw
- 24%
- Lorient
- 14% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
RC Lens produced 0.75 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 18
- 8
- On target
- 6
- 3
- Inside the box
- 10
- 5
- xG per shot
- 0.06
- 0.19
- Open play xG
- 0.78
- 1.45
- Set-piece xG
- 0.31
- 0.03
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.09 for RC Lens and 1.51 for Lorient.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
26 shots · 2.57 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- RC Lens
- Lorient
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
2.35 xG created 1.52 xGA
- D 1.53 created, 1.07 conceded against Nice
- W 0.82 created, 1.25 conceded against Nantes
- L 2.87 created, 1.22 conceded against Paris Saint-Germain
- W 1.54 created, 1.91 conceded against Olympique Lyonnais
- W 4.41 created, 1.84 conceded against Auxerre
- L 2.91 created, 1.83 conceded against RC Strasbourg
1.49 xG created 1.47 xGA
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
1 opportunity flagged0 won1 lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 1.75 | +0.3% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC Lens | 62.2% | 61.1% | +1.1 pp | 1.61 |
| Draw | 24.1% | 23.1% | +1.0 pp | 4.15 |
| Lorient | 13.7% | 15.8% | −2.1 pp | 7.29 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC Lens to score | 88.5% | 86.4% | +2.1 pp | 1.13 |
| RC Lens not to score | 11.5% | 13.6% | −2.1 pp | 8.70 |
| Lorient to score | 63.2% | 58.9% | +4.3 pp | 1.58 |
| Lorient not to score | 36.8% | 41.1% | −4.3 pp | 2.72 |
| Both teams to score | 57.3% | 53.3% | +4.0 pp | 1.74 |
| Both teams not to score | 42.7% | 46.7% | −4.0 pp | 2.34 |
| RC Lens 2+ goals | 61.5% | 62.5% | −1.0 pp | 1.63 |
| RC Lens at most 1 goal | 38.5% | 37.5% | +1.0 pp | 2.59 |
| Lorient 2+ goals | 23.1% | 25.0% | −1.9 pp | 4.32 |
| Lorient at most 1 goal | 76.9% | 75.0% | +1.9 pp | 1.30 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.6% | 78.9% | +3.7 pp | 1.21 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 17.4% | 21.1% | −3.7 pp | 5.75 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.5% | 56.9% | +0.6 pp | 1.74 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42.5% | 43.1% | −0.6 pp | 2.35 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- RC Lens sample
- 20 matches
- Lorient sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 2 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 2 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.