Saturday, 31/10/2026 at 17:15
27d 12h to kick-offNice – Stade Rennais
Model updated 4 October, 03:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Nice
- 34%
- Draw
- 29%
- Stade Rennais
- 37%
| Nice | Draw | Stade Rennais | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.94 | 3.46 | 2.70 |
- Total goals
- 2.94
- Over 2.5 goals
- 58%
- Both teams to score
- 65%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model can't separate them
37% Stade Rennais to win
- Attack
- 5th vs 15th
- Stade Rennais attack v Nice defence
- Defence
- 16th vs 15th
- Stade Rennais defence v Nice attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.50 vs -0.43
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.44 – 1.50
- Nice v Stade Rennais
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Nice | Stade Rennais |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.08 · 18th | (better) 1.76 · 7th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.75 · joint 10th | 2.27 · 17th |
| xGD / match | -0.67 · 16th | (better) -0.51 · 13th |
| xPts / match | 0.94 · 17th | (better) 1.08 · 15th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) -0.43 | -0.50 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 33% of the model's distribution.
- Stade Rennais clean sheet
- 21%
- Stade Rennais 2+ goals
- 46%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 42%
- Both teams to score: no
- 35%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.0%
- 1:2
- 9.8%
- 2:1
- 9.3%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Nice sample
- 20 matches
- Stade Rennais sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Nice
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Stade Rennais
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 03:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.