Paris FC 3:0 Nice: xG & match report · Ligue 1

Sunday, 30/08/2026 at 15:00

Full time

Match report · Ligue 1

Paris FC Home 2.89 xG · 15 shots

Nice Away 0.65 xG · 15 shots

30 The scoreline reflected the chances

Paris FC were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 41%. They won 3–0. The biggest difference was Paris FC's attack: 2.89 xG against 1.38 projected (+1.51). Nice produced 0.65 xG against 1.11 projected (−0.46).

Goals

21' Lassine Sinayoko (pen.) Paris FC · 0.82 xG chance 1–0
51' Samir Chergui Paris FC · 0.14 xG chance 2–0
89' Vincent Marchetti Paris FC · 0.25 xG chance 3–0

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Paris FC: 41% What happened
Draw: 32%
Nice: 27%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Paris FC 1.38 2.89 +1.51

Nice 1.11 0.65 -0.46

Paris FC produced 1.51 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Paris FC Nice

Shots: 15; 15
On target: 4; 4
Inside the box: 10; 9
xG per shot: 0.20; 0.04
Open play xG: 1.87; 0.52
Set-piece xG: 0.24; 0.12
Penalties: 1; 0

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.10 for Paris FC and 0.65 for Nice.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

30 shots · 3.57 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Paris FC
Nice
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Paris FC

1.64 xG created 1.05 xGA

W 1.74 created, 1.01 conceded against Metz
L 1.06 created, 1.71 conceded against Lille
W 1.86 created, 0.79 conceded against Stade Brestois
L 1.20 created, 1.77 conceded against Stade Rennais
W 2.20 created, 0.61 conceded against Paris Saint-Germain
D 1.80 created, 0.42 conceded against Troyes

Nice

1.12 xG created 1.23 xGA

D 0.19 created, 0.54 conceded against Lille
D 1.46 created, 2.32 conceded against Olympique de Marseille
D 1.07 created, 1.53 conceded against RC Lens
L 1.33 created, 0.84 conceded against Auxerre
D 1.64 created, 0.85 conceded against Metz
D 1.05 created, 1.28 conceded against Lorient

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Paris FC: 1 won · 1 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

2 opportunities flagged0 won2 lost

Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Paris FC against Nice before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Draw	3.30	+4.0%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	1.80	+3.6%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Paris FC	41.0%	46.3%	−5.2 pp	2.44
Draw	31.5%	28.8%	+2.8 pp	3.17
Nice	27.4%	25.0%	+2.5 pp	3.64

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	56.1%	52.0%	+4.1 pp	1.78
Both teams not to score	43.9%	48.0%	−4.1 pp	2.28
Over 1.5 goals	75.3%	71.8%	+3.5 pp	1.33
Under 1.5 goals	24.7%	28.2%	−3.5 pp	4.05
Over 2.5 goals	46.2%	47.4%	−1.2 pp	2.16
Under 2.5 goals	53.8%	52.6%	+1.2 pp	1.86

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Paris FC sample: 20 matches
Nice sample: 20 matches
Computed: 1 day before kick-off
Prices taken: 5 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.