Stade Rennais 2:2 Paris Saint-Germain: xG & match report · Ligue 1

Sunday, 23/08/2026 at 20:45

Full time

Match report · Ligue 1

Stade Rennais Home 0.87 xG · 9 shots

Paris Saint-Germain Away 2.16 xG · 19 shots

22 Paris Saint-Germain had the better chances, but it finished level

Paris Saint-Germain were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 45%. It finished 2–2. The biggest difference was Paris Saint-Germain's attack: 2.16 xG against 1.65 projected (+0.51). Stade Rennais produced 0.87 xG against 1.28 projected (−0.41).

Goals

9' Sebastian Szymański Stade Rennais · 0.12 xG chance 1–0
38' Esteban Lepaul Stade Rennais · 0.40 xG chance 2–0
71' Ferran Torres Paris Saint-Germain · 0.52 xG chance 2–1
82' Ferran Torres Paris Saint-Germain · 0.10 xG chance 2–2

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Stade Rennais: 27%
Draw: 28% What happened
Paris Saint-Germain: 45%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Stade Rennais 1.28 0.87 -0.41

Paris Saint-Germain 1.65 2.16 +0.51

Paris Saint-Germain produced 0.51 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Stade Rennais Paris Saint-Germain

Shots: 9; 19
On target: 3; 5
Inside the box: 3; 9
xG per shot: 0.12; 0.10
Open play xG: 1.05; 1.74
Set-piece xG: 0.00; 0.19
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.07 for Stade Rennais and 1.92 for Paris Saint-Germain.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

28 shots · 2.98 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Stade Rennais
Paris Saint-Germain
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Stade Rennais

1.98 xG created 1.93 xGA

W 1.22 created, 1.12 conceded against Angers
W 4.25 created, 1.00 conceded against RC Strasbourg
W 1.30 created, 2.17 conceded against Nantes
L 0.84 created, 3.17 conceded against Olympique Lyonnais
W 1.77 created, 1.20 conceded against Paris FC
L 2.49 created, 2.92 conceded against Olympique de Marseille

Paris Saint-Germain

1.78 xG created 1.30 xGA

W 2.17 created, 0.89 conceded against Nantes
W 2.78 created, 0.70 conceded against Angers
D 2.42 created, 0.96 conceded against Lorient
W 1.49 created, 0.17 conceded against Stade Brestois
W 1.22 created, 2.87 conceded against RC Lens
L 0.61 created, 2.20 conceded against Paris FC

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Stade Rennais: 1 won · 0 drawn · 1 lost

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Stade Rennais sample: 20 matches
Paris Saint-Germain sample: 20 matches
Computed: 6 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.