Olympique de Marseille 2:2 Toulouse: xG & match report · Ligue 1

Saturday, 29/11/2025 at 21:05

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Match report · Ligue 1

Olympique de Marseille Home 1.80 xG · 20 shots

Toulouse Away 0.70 xG · 6 shots

22 Olympique de Marseille had the better chances, but it finished level

Goals

14' Emersonn Toulouse · 0.15 xG chance 0–1
66' Igor Paixão Olympique de Marseille · 0.79 xG chance 1–1
74' Pierre-Emile Højbjerg Olympique de Marseille · 0.15 xG chance 2–1
90' Santiago Hidalgo Toulouse · 0.10 xG chance 2–2

The shots behind it

Olympique de Marseille Toulouse

Shots: 20; 6
On target: 5; 4
Inside the box: 11; 4
xG per shot: 0.09; 0.11
Open play xG: 1.47; 0.59
Set-piece xG: 0.29; 0.10
Penalties: —; —

Olympique de Marseille's shots add up to 1.76 xG and Toulouse's to 0.69; the published figures are 1.80 and 0.70.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

26 shots · 2.45 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Olympique de Marseille
Toulouse
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Olympique de Marseille

2.14 xG created 1.07 xGA

W 4.01 created, 0.49 conceded against Le Havre
L 0.66 created, 1.80 conceded against RC Lens
D 1.33 created, 1.04 conceded against Angers
W 0.52 created, 1.17 conceded against Auxerre
W 3.46 created, 0.74 conceded against Stade Brestois
W 2.86 created, 1.19 conceded against Nice

Toulouse

1.53 xG created 1.31 xGA

W 2.54 created, 0.08 conceded against Metz
L 0.68 created, 3.08 conceded against AS Monaco
D 1.55 created, 1.58 conceded against Stade Rennais
D 1.12 created, 1.30 conceded against Le Havre
D 1.32 created, 1.36 conceded against Lorient
L 1.98 created, 0.43 conceded against Angers

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Model details

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The model never priced this match before kick-off, so there is no projection to read the result against.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.