Debreceni VSC – Újpest prediction, 8 November 2026 · NB I (Hungary)

Sunday, 08/11/2026 at 15:30

35d 9h to kick-off

Match preview · NB I (Hungary)

Debreceni VSC 9th in NB I (Hungary) Home 2.24 projected goals

Újpest 4th in NB I (Hungary) Away 1.76 projected goals

Model updated 4 October, 06:30 Odds not yet available

What the model expects

expected goals

2.24 1.76

Debreceni VSC Újpest

Debreceni VSC: 48%
Draw: 23%
Újpest: 29%

The odds each result is fair at by the model's chance of it, with no margin in it
	Debreceni VSC	Draw	Újpest
Fair odds	2.07	4.33	3.50

Total goals: 3.99
Over 2.5 goals: 78%
Both teams to score: 78%

Data coverage · full

Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Model vs market

Market odds are not available for this match yet.

The model's case

Why the model leans Debreceni VSC

48% Debreceni VSC to win

Attack: 5th vs 12th; Debreceni VSC attack v Újpest defence
Defence: 9th vs 9th; Debreceni VSC defence v Újpest attack
Recent xG form: +0.52 vs +0.20; xGD per match, last 6
Projected goals: 2.24 – 1.76; Debreceni VSC v Újpest

How the model arrived here →

Team comparison

Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.

Overview: Debreceni VSC and Újpest compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Debreceni VSC	Újpest
xG / match	(better) 2.45 · 2nd	2.23 · 4th
xGA / match	2.13 · 9th	(better) 2.08 · 8th
xGD / match	(better) +0.32 · 6th	+0.15 · 7th
xPts / match	(better) 1.49 · 6th	1.48 · 7th
Last 6 xGD / match	(better) +0.52	+0.20

Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition.

Attack: Debreceni VSC and Újpest compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Debreceni VSC	Újpest
xG / match	(better) 2.45 · 2nd	2.23 · 4th
npxG / match	(better) 2.45	2.23
Shots / match	(better) 17.6 · 3rd	15.7 · 8th
npxG / shot	0.14 · 5th	(better) 0.14 · 4th

Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition.

Defence: Debreceni VSC and Újpest compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Debreceni VSC	Újpest
xGA / match	2.13 · 9th	(better) 2.08 · 8th
Shots faced / match	18.8 · 10th	(better) 16.7 · 8th
npxGA / shot	(better) 0.11 · 3rd	0.12 · 7th

The last 6 matches, per match.

Form: Debreceni VSC and Újpest compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Debreceni VSC	Újpest
Last 6 xG / match	(better) 2.47	2.25
Last 6 xGA / match	(better) 1.95	2.05
Last 6 xGD / match	(better) +0.52	+0.20

Ratings fitted over each club's last 20 matches, recent ones weighted more and adjusted for the opponent.

Debreceni VSC attack → Újpest defence

Evenly matched

Debreceni VSC attack: 1.07 · 5th
Újpest defence: 1.11 · 12th

Újpest attack → Debreceni VSC defence

Evenly matched

Újpest attack: 1.05 · 9th
Debreceni VSC defence: 1.03 · 9th

The season aggregate places Debreceni VSC 2nd of 12; the fitted rating, which adjusts for who each opponent was, places them lower, at 5th of 12. The aggregate counts every opponent alike.

The season aggregate places Újpest 8th of 12; the fitted rating, which adjusts for who each opponent was, places them lower, at 12th of 12. The aggregate counts every opponent alike.

The season aggregate places Újpest 4th of 12; the fitted rating, which adjusts for who each opponent was, places them lower, at 9th of 12. The aggregate counts every opponent alike.

One is the competition's average. An attack above it creates more than an average side does; a defence below it concedes less. Both are fitted over recent matches and adjusted for who the opponent was.

The scorelines behind the model's numbers

No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 25% of the model's distribution.

Debreceni VSC clean sheet: 15%
Debreceni VSC 2+ goals: 68%
Under 2.5 goals: 22%
Both teams to score: no: 22%

Most likely scorelines

2:1: 8.8%
2:2: 8.3%
1:1: 8.1%

Value calculator

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How value is calculated

Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.

Nothing you type is remembered.

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Match result

Debreceni VSC to win

48.3% 2.07 —

Draw

23.1% 4.33 —

Újpest to win

28.6% 3.50 —

Goals

Over 1.5 goals

93.4% 1.07 —

Under 1.5 goals

6.6% 15.08 —

Over 2.5 goals

78.4% 1.28 —

Under 2.5 goals

21.6% 4.62 —

Both teams to score

78.4% 1.28 —

Both teams not to score

21.6% 4.63 —

Team goals — Debreceni VSC

Debreceni VSC to score

91.1% 1.10 —

Debreceni VSC not to score

8.9% 11.26 —

Debreceni VSC 2+ goals

67.8% 1.48 —

Debreceni VSC at most 1 goal

32.2% 3.10 —

Team goals — Újpest

Újpest to score

85.0% 1.18 —

Újpest not to score

15.0% 6.67 —

Újpest 2+ goals

54.2% 1.85 —

Újpest at most 1 goal

45.8% 2.18 —

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Debreceni VSC sample: 20 matches
Újpest sample: 20 matches
Home xG sample · Debreceni VSC: 3 matches
Away xG sample · Újpest: 3 matches
Computed: Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 06:30

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Debreceni VSC

2.47 xG created 1.95 xGA

W 2.57 created, 1.07 conceded against Újpest
L 2.24 created, 2.09 conceded against Újpest
D 4.16 created, 1.43 conceded against ETO FC Győr
D 1.44 created, 1.79 conceded against MTK Budapest
W 2.99 created, 2.97 conceded against Paksi FC
L 1.42 created, 2.36 conceded against Vasas

Újpest

2.25 xG created 2.05 xGA

W 2.89 created, 0.65 conceded against Kisvárda FC
D 0.97 created, 2.49 conceded against MTK Budapest
L 2.12 created, 2.22 conceded against Paksi FC
W 2.64 created, 1.56 conceded against Vasas
D 2.82 created, 3.00 conceded against Ferencváros TC
W 2.08 created, 2.39 conceded against Zalaegerszegi TE

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

2 won · 0 drawn · 2 lost