Sunday, 11/10/2026 at 19:00
7d 16h to kick-offETO FC Győr – Puskás Akadémia
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- ETO FC Győr
- 43%
- Draw
- 25%
- Puskás Akadémia
- 33%
| ETO FC Győr | Draw | Puskás Akadémia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.35 | 4.04 | 3.07 |
- Total goals
- 3.71
- Over 2.5 goals
- 74%
- Both teams to score
- 76%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans ETO FC Győr
43% ETO FC Győr to win
- Attack
- 7th vs 6th
- ETO FC Győr attack v Puskás Akadémia defence
- Defence
- 7th vs 6th
- ETO FC Győr defence v Puskás Akadémia attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.12 vs +0.62
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.97 – 1.74
- ETO FC Győr v Puskás Akadémia
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | ETO FC Győr | Puskás Akadémia |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.83 · 8th from 3 matches | (better) 2.21 · 5th |
| xGA / match | 2.68 · 11th from 3 matches | (better) 1.73 · 3rd |
| xGD / match | -0.85 · 10th from 3 matches | (better) +0.48 · 3rd |
| xPts / match | 1.03 · 9th from 3 matches | (better) 1.65 · 4th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | +0.12 | (better) +0.62 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 27% of the model's distribution.
- ETO FC Győr clean sheet
- 15%
- ETO FC Győr 2+ goals
- 61%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 26%
- Both teams to score: no
- 24%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 9.6%
- 2:1
- 9.1%
- 2:2
- 8.5%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- ETO FC Győr sample
- 20 matches
- Puskás Akadémia sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · ETO FC Győr
- 1 match
- Away xG sample · Puskás Akadémia
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.