Saturday, 24/10/2026 at 18:00
20d 15h to kick-offETO FC Győr – Újpest
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- ETO FC Győr
- 49%
- Draw
- 23%
- Újpest
- 28%
| ETO FC Győr | Draw | Újpest | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.05 | 4.29 | 3.59 |
- Total goals
- 3.94
- Over 2.5 goals
- 78%
- Both teams to score
- 78%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans ETO FC Győr
49% ETO FC Győr to win
- Attack
- 7th vs 12th
- ETO FC Győr attack v Újpest defence
- Defence
- 7th vs 9th
- ETO FC Győr defence v Újpest attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.12 vs +0.20
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 2.22 – 1.71
- ETO FC Győr v Újpest
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | ETO FC Győr | Újpest |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.83 · 8th from 3 matches | (better) 2.23 · 4th |
| xGA / match | 2.68 · 11th from 3 matches | (better) 2.08 · 8th |
| xGD / match | -0.85 · 10th from 3 matches | (better) +0.15 · 7th |
| xPts / match | 1.03 · 9th from 3 matches | (better) 1.48 · 7th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | +0.12 | (better) +0.20 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 26% of the model's distribution.
- ETO FC Győr clean sheet
- 16%
- ETO FC Győr 2+ goals
- 67%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 22%
- Both teams to score: no
- 22%
Most likely scorelines
- 2:1
- 9.0%
- 1:1
- 8.4%
- 2:2
- 8.3%
Check your bookmaker's price
Enter a bookmaker's price to compare it with the model's fair odds.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
Show
Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- ETO FC Győr sample
- 20 matches
- Újpest sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · ETO FC Győr
- 1 match
- Away xG sample · Újpest
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.